Techno-economic feasibility and regression analysis of green hydrogen production from solar and wind energy in Türkiye
トルコにおける太陽光・風力からのグリーン水素製造の技術経済性評価と回帰分析 (AI 翻訳)
E. Akyuz, T. Tezer
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究はトルコにおける太陽光・風力からのグリーン水素製造の経済性を回帰分析で評価。15地点でのコスト試算（PV・風力）に加え、PPAモデルも検討。水素製造コストは風力で2.01～4.58 $/kg、将来コスト低減見通しも提示。
English
This study evaluates green hydrogen production costs in Turkey using solar and wind energy via regression analysis. Cost ranges: PV: 5.65-7.01 $/kg, wind: 2.01-4.58 $/kg. Future projections show cost reductions of 57-64% by 2050. PPA-based model yields costs as low as 1.95 $/kg.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本が推進する水素サプライチェーン構築において、再生可能エネルギーからの水素製造コストの実証データと回帰分析手法は参考になる。特に将来コスト低減率の試算は政策立案に有用。
In the global GX context
This paper provides cost benchmarks for green hydrogen production (PV and wind) and regression models that can inform global hydrogen cost reduction pathways. The PPA-based procurement model offers insights for corporate off-take strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides regression-based cost models for green hydrogen production that can be adapted to other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Offers cost benchmarks and future projections for hydrogen project planning and investment decisions.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights cost reduction potential and policy levers (PPAs, electrolyzer efficiency) to achieve green hydrogen competitiveness.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study presents a novel approach to evaluating the economic viability of green hydrogen production in Turkey, powered by renewable energy sources such as wind and photovoltaic systems, with cost calculations performed through regression analysis. The economic feasibility of hydrogen production was investigated for two distinct scenarios. In Scenario-1, the production costs of hydrogen produced using an electrolyzer were calculated for 15 different locations under two cases: Case-1 utilized photovoltaic systems, while Case-2 employed wind turbines. Multiple regression analyses were conducted on these results, leading to the development of two separate Cost of Hydrogen (CoH) equations. For Case-1, CoH values ranged from 5.65 to 7.01 $/kg across 30 locations. Projections considering an electrolyzer efficiency increase from 75% to 85%, and cost reductions of 57% and 64% by 2035 and 2050, respectively, revealed CoH values of 3.76-4.99 $/kg in 2035 and 3.61-4.84 $/kg in 2050. In Case-2, CoH values ranged from 2.01 to 4.58 $/kg, with projections for 2035 ranging from 1.36 to 3.26 $/kg and for 2050 from 1.31 to 3.15 $/kg. Scenario-2 examined a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)based renewable energy procurement model to meet electrolyzer energy demand. The effects of varying PPA prices, electrolyzer efficiencies, capacity factors, and costs on CoH were analyzed using MATLAB, yielding a regression equation for CoH. For PPA prices ranging from 0.02 to 0.10 $/kWh, with an electrolyzer efficiency of 75% and a cost multiplier of 100%, CoH values ranged from 1.95 to 6.16 $/kg. An increase in electrolyzer efficiency from 75% to 85% resulted in an 11.77% reduction in CoH. Furthermore, reducing the real discount rate from 6% to 3% at a PPA price of 0.02 $/kWh led to a decrease in CoH from 2.09 to 1.88 $/kg.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2025.02.151first seen 2026-05-14 21:59:54
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