Optimizing Malawi's power generation pathway to 2063: Balancing cost, security, and emissions for universal electricity access
マラウイの2063年までの電源経路最適化：コスト、安定性、排出量のバランスとユニバーサルな電力アクセスの実現 (AI 翻訳)
Sylvester William Chisale, Han Soo Lee
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
マラウイの2063年までの電源拡大経路をMILPモデルで最適化。風力を除く政策整合シナリオでは太陽光66%、石炭12%、水力21%となり、NPVは186.4億ドル、累積排出量116Mt CO2。一方、石炭・輸入を除く国内再エネシナリオではNPV257.9億ドル、排出量1.71Mt CO2と優位。再エネ主体の戦略でユニバーサルアクセスと脱炭素の両立が可能と示す。
English
This study uses a MILP optimization model to design least-cost power expansion pathways for Malawi to 2063, comparing scenarios with various technologies. The policy-aligned scenario excluding wind (S2) yields a solar-dominated mix (66%) with coal and hydro, achieving universal access but low NPV and high emissions. A fully domestic renewable scenario without coal or imports achieves the highest NPV and near-zero emissions. Results show a renewable-focused strategy can meet energy access goals while minimizing cost and emissions, providing a replicable framework for developing nations.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は、発展途上国のエネルギー転換に最適化モデルを直接適用し、コスト・安定性・排出間のトレードオフ評価の具体例を提供する。日本のJICAや民間企業にとって、新興国のインフラ計画における意思決定手法として参考になる。高VRE比率時の系統安定性への言及は、日本の再エネ導入課題にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study provides a rigorous optimization framework for national energy planning in a low-income country, demonstrating that renewable-dominated pathways can be economically competitive while achieving universal access and deep decarbonization. The results contribute to global discourse on just transitions and the replicability of such modeling for developing nations, especially in Africa.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Offers a transparent optimization model and scenario analysis applicable to other developing countries seeking least-cost decarbonization pathways.
🏢実務担当者:Provides evidence that renewable-focused power expansion can be both economical and low-emission, informing utility and government planning.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the economic and environmental disadvantages of coal and the viability of domestic renewables for achieving energy access and climate goals.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Global energy systems are rapidly transforming to meet decarbonization targets consistent with the 1.5 °C goal, while Malawi aims to achieve universal (100%) energy access by 2060. This study employs a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model to design Malawi's least-cost power expansion pathways under multiple technology scenarios including hydro, solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, coal, and imports. Findings reveal a notable divergence between policy-aligned and economically optimal pathways. Although wind power appears cost-competitive in model simulations, its large-scale adoption is constrained by Malawi's limited technical expertise and maintenance capacity. Scenario S2, which excludes wind and aligns with current government plans, indicates a solar-dominated generation mix (66% by 2060), supported by coal (12%) and hydro (21%), achieving universal access but yielding the lowest net present value (NPV) of US$18.64 billion and high cumulative emissions (116 Mt CO 2 ). Conversely, Scenario S6, a fully domestic renewable system excluding both coal and imports, achieves the highest NPV (US$25.79 billion) with near-zero emissions (1.71 Mt CO 2 ). By 2040, all scenarios achieve over 50% variable renewable energy (VRE) share, indicating the need to carefully address grid stability as part of system planning and design. Intermediate pathways incorporating imports (S5) or limited coal with carbon pricing (S4) confirm the economic and environmental disadvantages of coal dependence. The results demonstrate that Malawi can attain full energy access through a renewable-focused strategy while minimizing emissions and costs. The study provides a replicable framework for developing nations pursuing integrated, climate-aligned energy transitions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2026.102243first seen 2026-06-26 04:48:35
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。