Integrating scenario analyses and risk preferences into carbon-regulated supply chains: a dynamic repeated game-theoretic optimisation approach
シナリオ分析とリスク選好を炭素規制サプライチェーンに統合する：動的繰り返しゲーム理論的最適化アプローチ (AI 翻訳)
Yifan Xin, Ismail M. Ali, Yangyan Shi, Ripon K. Chakrabortty
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、炭素規制下でのサプライチェーンにおいて、シナリオ分析とリスク選好（リスク回避、中立、追求）を動的繰り返しゲーム理論フレームワークに統合した。電動スクーター産業の数値実験により、補助金と適度な炭素税が生産拡大と効率的企業の利益拡大に寄与し、中程度のリスク選好が安定した性能をもたらすことが示された。
English
This paper integrates scenario analyses and risk preferences (risk-averse, neutral, seeking) into a repeated game-theoretic framework for carbon-regulated supply chains. Numerical experiments in the e-scooter industry show that subsidies combined with moderate carbon taxes increase production and widen profit gaps for carbon-efficient firms, while moderate risk tolerance yields stable performance.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではGXリーグや炭素価格付けの導入が進んでおり、本手法は企業が炭素規制下でのサプライチェーン戦略を動的に最適化する際に、リスク選好を考慮した意思決定を支援する。特に、補助金と炭素税の組み合わせ効果や競合他社との戦略的相互作用を分析する点が実務上有用である。
In the global GX context
Globally, as carbon regulations like the EU ETS and CBAM tighten, this framework offers a novel way for manufacturers to dynamically adjust production and abatement under uncertainty, incorporating risk preferences. The e-scooter case provides insights applicable to any carbon-regulated, competitive supply chain.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The SA-RP-RCG framework provides a novel method integrating scenario analysis and risk preferences into game-theoretic optimization, advancing the literature on carbon-regulated supply chains.
🏢実務担当者:Manufacturers can use the model to evaluate production and abatement strategies under different carbon policies and risk postures, improving competitiveness and regulatory compliance.
🏛政策担当者:The results highlight the importance of combining carbon taxes with subsidies to incentivize production and emission reductions, informing the design of effective carbon pricing mechanisms.
📄 Abstract（原文）
To remain competitive while meeting sustainability goals, manufacturers' supply chain models subject to carbon regulation and serving eco-conscious markets need to adjust their production and abatement choices dynamically. However, existing models ignore how endogenous risk preferences and exogenous scenario uncertainty combine to drive these strategic shifts. This paper integrates <b>S</b>cenario <b>A</b>nalyses and <b>R</b>isk <b>P</b>references – risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-seeking behaviours under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic market scenarios – into a <b>R</b>epeated <b>C</b>arbon <b>G</b>ame-theoretic (SA-RP-RCG) framework for a carbon-regulated supply chain model. This model applies repeated-game logic to decompose long-term dynamics into a series of non-convex Mixed-Integer Quadratically Constrained Programming (MIQCP) sub-problems, each of which performs an optimisation trade-off between profitability and emissions. Numerical results from the e-scooter industry show that production increases only when subsidies accompany moderate carbon taxes, thereby widening profit gaps in favour of carbon-efficient industry leaders, yet allowing mid-range manufacturers to narrow the gap if they invest early. Moderate risk tolerance yields stable performance, whereas excessive risk-seeking reduces returns for carbon-efficient manufacturers. Less carbon-efficient manufacturers can improve their position by adopting bolder strategies, such as risk-seeking. These findings help asymmetric manufacturers align their decisions with evolving market signals and policy interventions while selecting an appropriate risk posture.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.32592645first seen 2026-06-26 04:49:45 · last seen 2026-06-26 04:53:19
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。