The Impact of Carbon Trading Market on the Layout Decision of Renewable Energy Investment—Theoretical Modeling and Case Study
炭素取引市場が再生可能エネルギー投資の配置決定に与える影響—理論モデルと事例研究 (AI 翻訳)
Ning Yan, Shenhai Huang, Yan Chen, Daini Zhang, Qin Xu, Xiangyi Yang, Shiyan Wen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、炭素排出権取引制度（ETS）を外生的ショックと捉え、発電・送電・需要家・政府を含むマルチエージェント均衡モデルを構築。浙江省のパネルデータ（2017-2022年）を用いて炭素価格（50-250元/トン）の変動に対する各主体の異質な反応をシミュレーションした。結果、炭素価格上昇は再エネ発電量を増加させる一方、総電力需要や消費者効用を減少させるなど、トレードオフが明らかになった。
English
This paper treats the carbon market as an exogenous shock and develops a multi-agent equilibrium model incorporating carbon pricing to analyze how carbon prices reshape renewable energy investment layouts. Using panel data from Zhejiang Province (2017-2022), simulations show that higher carbon prices increase renewable generation (+0.55% to +2.89%) but reduce total electricity sales and consumer utility, revealing trade-offs in the energy transition.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国ETSの実証分析は、日本が2026年度に開始する排出量取引制度（GX-ETS）の設計や、再エネ投資促進策の検討に示唆を与える。特に、炭素価格が異なる主体に与える不均一な影響は、日本の電力システム改革や地域間連系線の活用を考える上で参考になる。
In the global GX context
This study provides empirical evidence on how carbon pricing affects renewable energy investment decisions across different stakeholders, relevant for global carbon market design and energy transition policy. The multi-agent modeling approach offers insights for countries implementing or expanding ETS, such as the EU, China, and emerging markets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a multi-agent equilibrium model linking carbon pricing to renewable investment decisions, useful for energy policy modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for corporate energy planners on how carbon price scenarios affect renewable investment returns and grid integration.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights trade-offs between carbon pricing and energy affordability, informing ETS design and complementary policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The Carbon Emissions Trading System (ETS) serves as a market-based mechanism to drive renewable energy (RE) investments, yet its heterogeneous impacts on different stakeholders remain underexplored. This paper treats the carbon market as an exogenous shock and develops a multi-agent equilibrium model incorporating carbon pricing, encompassing power generation enterprises, power transmission enterprises, power consumers, and the government, to analyze how carbon prices reshape RE investment layouts under dual-carbon goals. Using panel data from Zhejiang Province (2017–2022), a high-energy-consumption region with 25% net electricity imports, we simulate heterogeneous responses of agents to carbon price fluctuations (CNY 50–250/ton). The results show that RE on-grid electricity increases (+0.55% to +2.89%), while thermal power declines (–4.98% to −15.39%) on the generation side. Transmission-side RE sales rise (+3.25% to +9.74%), though total electricity sales decrease (−0.49% to −2.22%). On the consumption side, RE self-generation grows (+2.12% to +5.93%), yet higher carbon prices reduce overall utility (−0.44% to −2.05%). Furthermore, external electricity integration (peaking at 28.5% of sales in 2020) alleviates provincial entities’ carbon cost pressure under high carbon prices. This study offers systematic insights for renewable energy investment decisions and policy optimization.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.3390/en18153950first seen 2026-05-05 19:06:47
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