Geothermal energy network transition dynamics for the existing building stock - A case study for New York
既存建物ストックを対象とした地熱エネルギーネットワーク遷移動態 - ニューヨークを事例として (AI 翻訳)
Nicholas Fry, Omid Khajehdehi, Sara Hastings‐Simon, Roman Shor, Aggrey Mwesigye
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
地熱エネルギーネットワーク（GEN）は既存建物の冷暖房脱炭素化に有望だが、普及には技術・政策・社会的要因が複雑に絡む。本研究はシステムダイナミクスモデルを構築し、ニューヨークを対象に意見形成・設備更新・物理制約を統合した遷移分析を実施。価格競争力と政策期待が導入速度を左右し、設備更新制約により実導入が遅れることを示した。
English
This study models the transition to geothermal energy networks (GENs) for decarbonizing heating and cooling in existing buildings in New York. Using a system dynamics approach integrating opinion dynamics, technology deployment constraints, and physical operations, it finds that adoption intent can shift rapidly (3 years) but actual deployment is constrained by equipment turnover and network expansion. Price competitiveness and policy expectations are key drivers, while advocate strength can delay favorable adoption.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも既存建物の脱炭素が急務だが、地熱ネットワークの普及には地域特性や規制・補助金設計が重要。本モデルは政策介入の効果を定量的に評価可能で、日本のゼロエネルギーハウス（ZEH）や地域熱供給政策への示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a rigorous framework for modeling urban-scale geothermal network transitions, relevant for global cities pursuing building decarbonization. It highlights the gap between consumer intent and actual deployment due to infrastructure and workforce constraints, informing policy design for the clean energy transition.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:A system dynamics model integrating opinion dynamics and physical constraints for GEN transition analysis; useful for further research on urban energy transitions.
🏢実務担当者:Insights on deployment barriers and key drivers for GEN adoption; can inform utility and city planning for building electrification.
🏛政策担当者:Quantifies how policy expectations and price competitiveness accelerate GEN adoption, while advocate strength can delay it; relevant for designing effective incentives and infrastructure strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Geothermal energy networks (GENs) offer a utility-scale pathway for decarbonizing heating and cooling in existing buildings by pooling subsurface thermal resources and distributing energy through networked heat pump systems, thereby avoiding many limitations of individual retrofits. This study develops a system dynamics model to examine GEN transition dynamics in New York by coupling opinion-driven adoption intent, technology deployment constrained by equipment lifetimes and network availability, and a physically grounded GEN operational submodel. Adoption intent is represented using an augmented opinion-dynamics framework that captures the influence of price competitiveness, workforce readiness, infrastructure availability, policy expectation, and advocate strength, while realized deployment is governed by stock-and-flow constraints that limit installations to feasible retirement and replacement rates. Energy consumption and emissions are calculated using a stock-binning approach that scales representative heating and cooling demand in discrete deployment blocks, preserving stock–flow consistency and avoiding linear over-scaling. Model results indicate that GEN adoption intent becomes predominant rapidly, overtaking fossil fuel favorability after approximately three years under current New York policy and sentiment conditions. A further global sensitivity analysis on various external factors within the base model indicates a range from about 2 to 18 years in GEN adoption intent dominance. However, realized deployment remains constrained by network expansion and equipment turnover, leading hybrid systems to function as a recurring fallback when GEN connections are unavailable. The limited notional service territory characteristics – tied to typical building diversity for New York – include a peak thermal heating load of 177 MW and a cooling load of 130 MW. Over a 45-year horizon, the modeled transition yields approximately 2097 GWh of additional electricity consumption, 7639 GWh of avoided methane gas use, and 14% avoided CO2-equivalent emissions relative to an initial-state static baseline, under present-day grid conditions. Sensitivity analysis shows that price competitiveness and policy expectation strongly influence transition timing, while advocate strength can delay favorable adoption by decades, underscoring the importance of infrastructure, workforce, and regulatory mechanisms in translating consumer intent into physical system change.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2026.102238first seen 2026-05-15 17:02:33
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