Do carbon policy shocks move stocks? evidence from China’s carbon market
炭素政策ショックは株式を動かすか？中国炭素市場からの証拠 (AI 翻訳)
Jiachao Peng, Yuxin Zeng, Shuke Fu, Jiali Tian
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、中国の全国排出量取引制度（ETS）の政策発表日における炭素価格変動が株価に与える影響を分析。2021年7月から2025年12月までの1,600社以上のデータを用い、政策ショックが通常時より強い株価反応を引き起こすことを発見。この効果は市場の成熟度や企業の炭素曝露度によって異なり、移行リスクの価格形成メカニズムを示唆する。
English
This paper examines how carbon policy shocks from China's national ETS affect stock returns. Using daily data for over 1,600 listed firms from July 2021 to December 2025, it finds that carbon price changes on policy release days have a significantly stronger impact on stock returns than on other days. The effect varies with market maturity, firm carbon exposure, and policy type, providing evidence of transition risk pricing in China's equity market.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国ETSの政策ショックが株式市場に与える影響を実証した研究。日本では2023年度から有報でのGHG開示が始まり、カーボンプライシングの議論が活発化しているが、本論文は政策発表と市場反応の関係を定量的に示しており、日本のETS設計や企業のリスク管理に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study provides empirical evidence on how carbon policy announcements affect equity markets, contributing to the global understanding of transition risk pricing. While focused on China, the methodology and findings are relevant for other jurisdictions implementing carbon pricing, such as the EU ETS and emerging markets, and inform the design of market communication strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel empirical framework linking carbon policy shocks to stock returns, useful for studying transition risk pricing in emerging markets.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights how carbon market announcements can affect portfolio valuations, informing risk management and disclosure strategies for firms with carbon exposure.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the market impact of ETS policy communication, offering insights for designing effective carbon market mechanisms and managing transition risks.
📄 Abstract（原文）
As carbon policies expand under net zero goals, policy news in carbon markets can send fast signals for equity prices. Using daily data for more than 1,600 listed firms from July 2021 to December 2025, we build carbon policy shocks from carbon price moves on 12 national ETS release days and estimate their link to stock returns. Carbon price changes on release days have a much stronger link to stock returns than changes on other days. Channel tests suggest the response is tied to shifts in short-run risk conditions and changes in trading conditions around release days. The effect is stronger when the carbon market is more mature and more active, and it differs by ETS coverage status, policy type and firm carbon exposure. The findings show how transition risk is priced in China and inform ETS communication and market depth.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-026-00424-6first seen 2026-05-05 19:11:52
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