Oil Futures Dynamics and Energy Transition: Evidence from Macroeconomic and Energy Market Linkages
石油先物のダイナミクスとエネルギー転換：マクロ経済とエネルギー市場の連関からのエビデンス (AI 翻訳)
Xiaomei Yuan, Fang-Rong Ren, Tao-Feng Wu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、石油先物価格の決定要因をマクロ経済変数とエネルギー市場の連関から分析。グレンジャー因果性や共和分分析を用いて、経済発展や為替レート、他エネルギー価格との長期的均衡関係を確認。石油先物価格予測の精度向上が、低炭素投資戦略やサステナブルファイナンスに貢献すると主張。
English
This paper analyzes the determinants of oil futures prices using Granger causality, cointegration, and error correction models, focusing on macroeconomic factors and energy market linkages. It finds long-run equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamics, offering insights for low-carbon investment strategies and sustainable finance.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX文脈では、エネルギー転換における化石燃料価格の変動リスク管理に示唆を与える。ただし、直接的な脱炭素政策や開示基準との関連は薄い。
In the global GX context
Globally, this study contributes to understanding energy price dynamics in the context of transition finance and climate-aligned portfolio decisions, though it does not directly address disclosure frameworks like TCFD or ISSB.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on oil futures price determinants useful for energy finance and transition risk modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for managing fossil fuel price risk in low-carbon investment strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Understanding the price dynamics of oil futures is crucial for advancing green finance strategies and supporting sustainable energy transitions. This study investigates the macroeconomic and energy market determinants of oil futures prices through Granger causality, cointegration analysis, and the error correction model, using daily data. It focuses on the influence of economic development levels, exchange rate fluctuations, and inter-energy price linkages. The empirical findings indicate that (1) oil futures prices exhibit strong correlations with other energy prices, macroeconomic factors, and exchange rate variables; (2) economic development significantly affects oil futures prices, while exchange rate impacts are statistically insignificant based on the daily data analyzed; (3) there exists a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between oil futures prices and variables representing economic activity, exchange rates, and energy market trends; (4) oil futures prices exhibit significant short-term dynamics while adjusting steadily toward a long-run equilibrium driven by macroeconomic and energy market fundamentals. By enhancing the accuracy of oil futures price forecasting, this study offers practical insights for managing financial risks associated with fossil energy markets and contributes to the formulation of low-carbon investment strategies. The findings provide a valuable reference for integrating energy pricing models into sustainable finance and climate-aligned portfolio decisions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.3390/en18143889first seen 2026-05-05 19:07:36
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