Policy-Conditioned Technology Pathways for Sustainable Steel Industry Decarbonization in China: A Soft-Linked Scenario Analysis
中国の持続可能な鉄鋼業脱炭素化のための政策条件付き技術経路：ソフトリンクシナリオ分析 (AI 翻訳)
Xueao Sun, Qi Sun, Yuhan Li, Xinke Wang, Menglan Yao, Danping Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国の鉄鋼業脱炭素化に向けて、政策条件（炭素規制、電力コスト支援、両者の組み合わせ）が技術経路の選択に与える影響を評価するため、ソフトリンク型の持続可能性評価フレームワークを開発した。2025～2050年を対象に、多期間・多目的最適化モデルを用いて、スクラップEAF、H2-DRI-EAF、BF-BOFの3つのルートを比較。その結果、政策環境によって実現可能なトレードオフフロンティアが変化し、スクラップEAFが中期の中核ルートとなる一方、H2-DRI-EAFは条件が整わなければ2050年までに支配的にはならないことが示された。
English
This study develops a soft-linked sustainability assessment framework to evaluate how policy environments (carbon control, electricity cost support, or both) shape steelmaking route transitions in China from 2025 to 2050. A multi-period, multi-objective optimization model compares Scrap-EAF, H2-DRI-EAF, and BF-BOF routes. Results show that policy conditions alter the feasible trade-off frontier: Scrap-EAF becomes the central medium-term route, while H2-DRI-EAF does not dominate by 2050 under baseline assumptions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国鉄鋼業の脱炭素化は世界のCO2排出量に大きく影響する。本研究は政策と技術の相互作用を定量評価しており、日本でも鉄鋼GX政策（水素利用、電化支援）の設計や、SSBJ開示におけるシナリオ分析の参考になる。
In the global GX context
China's steel decarbonization is critical for global climate targets. This paper provides a replicable soft-linking methodology that integrates policy signals into technology transition optimization, offering insights for TCFD/ISSB scenario analyses and transition finance assessments in hard-to-abate sectors.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The soft-linked modeling approach demonstrates how to combine policy scenarios with multi-objective optimization for sectoral transition analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Steel producers can use the findings to anticipate how different policy conditions affect route feasibility and cost-affordability trade-offs.
🏛政策担当者:The results show that combined carbon-control and electricity-cost support policies are more effective than single instruments in promoting scrap-EAF and H2-DRI-EAF adoption.
📄 Abstract（原文）
China’s steel decarbonization is a key sustainability challenge because cleaner production routes must be evaluated not only by their mitigation potential, but also by their implications for industrial continuity, cost affordability, resource security, and transition manageability. This study develops a national-scale soft-linked sustainability assessment framework that translates policy-conditioned macro signals into a multi-period, multi-objective optimization model of steelmaking-route transition from 2025 to 2050. Three policy environments are examined: carbon-control pressure, electricity-cost support for electrified routes, and their combined application. The model evaluates route portfolios by cumulative system cost, emissions, and transition adjustment intensity, linking mitigation with affordability and implementation feasibility. Results show that policy environments do not shift pathways uniformly; instead, they reshape the feasible trade-off frontier and alter which route combinations emerge as plausible compromise solutions. Across scenarios, scrap-based electric arc furnace steelmaking (Scrap-EAF) becomes the central medium-term route, while blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace steelmaking (BF-BOF) contracts but remains residual. Hydrogen-based direct reduced iron–electric arc furnace steelmaking (H2-DRI-EAF) expands under favorable conditions, but does not become dominant by 2050 under the baseline national-scale parameterization. Overall, this study contributes to sustainability-oriented industrial transition analysis by showing how policy-conditioned environments reshape route feasibility, transition sequencing, affordability–mitigation trade-offs, and the practical manageability of China’s steel-sector decarbonization.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/su18105005first seen 2026-05-20 05:50:02
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