Tail Risk from Extreme Temperature in an Integrated Northeastern American Low- Carbon Electricity System
統合された北米北東部低炭素電力システムにおける極端な気温からの尾部リスク (AI 翻訳)
Anson T. Y. Ho, Adrien Desroziers, Kim P. Huynh, Marcel-Cristian Voia
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、北米北東部の低炭素電力システムにおける気温上昇の尾部リスクを定量化。Vine copulaを用いて米国とカナダ（ケベック州、オンタリオ州）間の低炭素電力余剰の非線形依存性を分析した結果、熱波時に米国の低炭素発電不足が200～250%に拡大し、化石燃料依存が増すことを示す。
English
This paper quantifies tail risk from extreme temperature in the Northeastern American low-carbon electricity system. Using a Vine copula on hourly data from 2019-2023, it finds that on heat-wave days, U.S. shortfalls exceed local low-carbon generation by 200-250%, increasing reliance on fossil fuels.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の電力システムは島国で相互接続が限られるが、再生可能エネルギー導入拡大に伴う気象リスク管理の重要性が増している。本論文のリスク評価手法は、日本の電力系統運用や気候変動適応策に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper highlights the interdependence of regional low-carbon electricity markets and the vulnerability to extreme heat. It informs global discussions on grid integration, climate risk assessment, and the need for resilient decarbonization strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Illustrates a novel application of copula modeling to assess tail risk in multi-region low-carbon electricity systems, relevant for energy system modeling and climate adaptation.
🏢実務担当者:Provides quantitative evidence of increased fossil fuel reliance during heat waves, useful for grid operators and energy traders in managing supply risks.
🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the need for cross-border coordination and capacity investments to mitigate climate-driven electricity deficits in integrated low-carbon grids.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<div> Cross-border electricity trade in the Northeastern American grid helps U.S. markets mitigate structural deficits in low-carbon generation capacity. These deficits are partially offset by surplus exports from Québec (hydropower) and Ontario (nuclear generation). We use a Vine copula to assess the nonlinear interdependence of these markets. Using hourly data from 2019-2023, we estimate the joint lower tail of regional net lowcarbon surpluses. In the unconditional distribution, the 5% Value-at-Risk (VaR) indicates an aggregate deficit of -1.3% of low-carbon generation. Regional VaR estimates reveal pronounced asymmetries as U.S. shortfalls exceed local low-carbon generation by about 130-178%. While Canadian regions are substantially less exposed in the lower tail. On heat-wave days, the aggregate deficit is -1.8% with the U.S. regional shortfalls about 200-250%. As heat waves increase in frequency and intensity, there will be an increase reliance on fossil fuels during electricity shortfalls. </div>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://hal.science/hal-05609949first seen 2026-05-17 05:55:24
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