Cost‐Benefit Analysis of the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in Fertilizer Trade
肥料貿易における欧州連合炭素国境調整メカニズムの費用便益分析 (AI 翻訳)
Natalie Crisci, Md Deluair Hossen, Andrew Muhammad, Seong-Hoon Cho
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
2026年施行予定のEU炭素国境調整メカニズム（CBAM）について、肥料貿易に焦点を当て、経済費用（EU消費者の余剰減少）と環境便益（炭素排出削減）を定量比較。ベースラインでは費用が便益を上回るが、カーボンプライスや社会的炭素費用の感度分析により逆転可能性を示す。
English
This study conducts a cost-benefit analysis of the EU CBAM specifically for fertilizer trade. It finds that under baseline assumptions the economic cost ($4.04B) exceeds the environmental benefit ($2.58B) annually, but sensitivity analysis shows the balance flips with higher carbon credit costs or social cost of carbon values.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はEUとの貿易においてCBAMの影響を受ける可能性があり、本分析は日本が同様の政策を検討する際の参考となる。また、肥料価格上昇が国内農業に及ぼす影響を評価する上で示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a rigorous cost-benefit framework for CBAM, relevant for policymakers globally who are considering carbon border adjustments. The fertilizer sector focus highlights sector-specific dynamics that can inform the design of effective and equitable climate trade policies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The cost-benefit methodology and sensitivity analysis offer a replicable framework for evaluating CBAM in other sectors and regions.
🏢実務担当者:EU fertilizer importers and agribusiness can use the findings to anticipate price impacts and explore alternative inputs like organic fertilizers.
🏛政策担当者:The paper's quantitative trade-off analysis helps regulators justify CBAM design choices and calibrate carbon prices to achieve net benefits.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), launching 2026, will charge EU importers for embedded carbon emissions, aiming to reduce emissions but raising import costs. Shifts in demand following implementation may reduce carbon emissions, but importers will bear the cost of increased prices. This study examines and weighs the economic costs and environmental benefits of the CBAM in a fertilizer sector‐specific policy analysis, testing whether the reduction of imported carbon emissions justifies the cost to EU consumers. To evaluate this trade‐off, EU import demand is modeled and analyzed before and after CBAM credits are included in the import price. Economic costs are evaluated through a welfare analysis calculating the decline in surplus due to reduced imports. Environmental benefits are calculated by determining the decreases in fertilizer demand, valued at the social cost of carbon (SCC) to compare directly with economic costs. The baseline scenario results show that the cost of the CBAM, equal to $4.04 billion, outweighs the benefit, equal to $2.58 billion, by $1.46 billion annually, when using a CBAM credit cost of $73.5 per metric ton CO 2 and a SCC value of $254 per metric ton CO 2 . However, sensitivity analysis reveals that the CBAM benefit outweighs the cost when CBAM credits cost $91.8 per metric ton CO 2 or the SCC is valued at $700 per metric ton CO 2 . This study helps relevant stakeholders, as trade partners examine strategies and EU agribusiness prepares for increasing input prices. In light of new EU agricultural goals aimed at reducing synthetic fertilizers, the CBAM's impact on demand for fertilizer imports could provide an opportunity for organic fertilizers as a substitute given policy support.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.70081first seen 2026-05-15 17:19:48
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