Food self-sufficiency targets reshape climate trade-offs and synergies in China’s food system
食料自給率目標が中国の食料システムにおける気候トレードオフとシナジーを再形成する (AI 翻訳)
Hao Zhao, Haotian Zhang, Nicklas Forsell, Peter Havlík, Zhou Shi, Jinfeng Chang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の食料自給率目標が国内および貿易に伴う温室効果ガス排出に与える影響をモデル分析。自給率向上は貿易排出を半減させるが国内排出を増加。大豆自給率向上が飼料コストを上げ、畜産部門の拡大を抑制するフィードバック効果を発見。生産効率向上と食事シフトを組み合わせることで排出を20%削減可能。
English
This study models how China's food self-sufficiency targets affect GHG emissions. Increasing self-sufficiency reduces trade-embodied emissions by 50% but increases domestic emissions by 7%, with net reduction. A market-mediated feedback via higher soybean self-sufficiency constrains livestock expansion. Combining self-sufficiency with efficiency gains and dietary shifts reduces overall emissions by 20% by 2060.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の食料安全保障政策と農林水産業の排出削減にも示唆を与える。食料自給率向上と排出削減のトレードオフを考慮する際の参考事例となるが、直接的な日本への適用には慎重な検討が必要。
In the global GX context
This paper provides insights for global climate and food policy, showing trade-offs between self-sufficiency and emissions. It highlights the need to integrate food security and climate goals, relevant for countries pursuing similar policies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful for understanding the emission implications of food self-sufficiency policies and the role of market feedback.
🏢実務担当者:Agribusiness and food companies can learn about supply chain emission impacts and potential cost increases from self-sufficiency targets.
🏛政策担当者:Relevant for policymakers balancing food security and climate commitments, especially in designing integrated agricultural and climate strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract China’s prioritization of food self-sufficiency is likely to reconfigure global agricultural trade and associated GHG emissions, yet its climate compatibility remains uncertain. Here, we employ a well-established food system integrated assessment model (GLOBIOM-China) to quantify how self-sufficiency targets alter domestic and trade-embodied GHG emissions through 2060. Our findings indicate that solely increasing food self-sufficiency rate would reduce China’s trade embodied GHG emissions by 50% (107 Mt CO2-eq yr-1), but increase domestic emissions by 7% (55 Mt CO2-eq yr-1). This results in a net reduction of 52 Mt CO2-eq yr-1 in overall emissions while intensifying domestic land competition. We uncover a market-mediated mitigation feedback that higher soybean self-sufficiency raises domestic feed costs, acting as an implicit constraint that limits the expansion of the high-emitting livestock sector. This upstream intervention delivers emission reduction elasticities comparable to directly targeting ruminant production. However, to prevent such passive mitigation, self-sufficiency must be coupled with production efficiency gains and dietary shifts. This combined pathway reduces overall GHG emissions by 211 (162-259) Mt CO2-eq yr-1 (20%) by 2060, aligning national food security with global climate targets.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8287first seen 2026-06-27 05:03:36
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