Quantifying Exchange Rate Volatility and Financial Sensitivity in Indonesia’s Energy Transition Financing
インドネシアのエネルギー転換融資における為替変動リスクと財務感応度の定量化 (AI 翻訳)
Faqih Ahmad Muzakky
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、インドネシアのエネルギー転換プロジェクトにおける為替変動リスクを2014～2024年のUSD/IDRデータを用いて定量分析。シナリオ感応度分析の結果、為替変動は収益成長ほど支配的ではないものの、長期的な資金調達において重要なリスク要因であることを示した。構造的な通貨リスク管理メカニズムの必要性を強調。
English
This study quantifies exchange rate risk in Indonesia's energy transition financing using historical USD/IDR data from 2014-2024. Scenario-based sensitivity analysis reveals that while volatility is moderate, its long-term financial implications are substantial for foreign-currency-funded projects. The findings support the need for structured currency risk management mechanisms in emerging market energy finance.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
インドネシアの事例ではあるが、日本の企業や金融機関が新興国でのエネルギー転換投資を検討する際、為替リスク管理の重要性を示唆する。日本のGX政策においても海外展開のリスク評価に活用可能。
In the global GX context
This paper provides quantitative evidence on currency risk as a barrier to energy transition financing in emerging markets, directly relevant to global climate finance discussions. It highlights the need for risk mitigation instruments that could be adopted by multilateral development banks or national policies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodology for integrating exchange rate volatility into financial sensitivity analysis for energy projects can be applied to other emerging markets.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate finance teams in renewable energy can use the findings to assess currency risk in overseas projects and structure hedging strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers in emerging economies and development finance institutions should consider establishing currency risk-sharing mechanisms to attract private investment.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Exchange rate risk remains a major financial barrier to long-term energy transition financing in emerging market economies. In Indonesia, renewable and clean energy projects are frequently exposed to currency mismatches, where revenues are predominantly denominated in Indonesian rupiah while capital expenditures and debt obligations are largely denominated in foreign currency, particularly the United States dollar. Previous studies emphasize that such mismatches significantly increase financial vulnerability in infrastructure projects (Siregar & Wihardja, 2023; OECD, 2024). This study quantitatively examines the magnitude of exchange rate risk and its implications for financial sustainability in Indonesia’s energy sector. Using historical USD/IDR data from 2014–2024, exchange rate volatility is estimated and integrated into a scenario-based sensitivity analysis applied to long-term financial projections. The results indicate that while Indonesia’s exchange rate volatility remains moderate relative to other emerging economies, its long-term financial implications are substantial when applied to large-scale, foreign-currency-funded energy investments. Sensitivity analysis further shows that exchange rate volatility, although less dominant than revenue growth, constitutes a critical risk factor for financial sustainability when combined with long-term funding exposure. These findings provide quantitative evidence supporting the need for structured currency risk management mechanisms in Indonesia’s energy transition financing.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.53697/emak.v7i3.4073first seen 2026-05-15 18:10:53
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。