Do Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Affect Economic Growth? Evidence from the EU-27 Using Local Projections
温室効果ガス排出削減は経済成長に影響を与えるか？EU-27のデータを用いたLocal Projectionsによる実証分析 (AI 翻訳)
Aránzazu de Juan Fernández
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
1995～2024年のEU-27データを用い、温室効果ガス削減がGDPに与える動的効果をLocal Projectionsで推定。CO2削減は2年後に0.10ppの負の効果。景気拡大期のコストは後退期の2倍。国ごとの構造的要因（炭素集約度、サービス部門比率、経済規模）が異質性を説明。運輸・製造業が主要経路。従来の炭素価格効果と符号が逆転し、異なる識別であることを確認。
English
Using local projections on EU-27 data (1995-2024), this paper estimates the dynamic GDP effects of actual emission reductions. Fossil CO2 reductions cause a robust negative effect (-0.10 pp per 1% reduction at 2-year horizon), with costs twice as large during expansions. Heterogeneity is explained by carbon intensity, service sector share, and economic size. Road transportation and manufacturing are key channels. Methodological comparison with price-based projections shows opposite signs, confirming distinct structural identification.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本研究はEU-27を対象とするが、日本でもGX政策の経済影響評価が重要視されている。Local Projectionsによる因果推定手法は、日本の排出削減政策（例：GXリーグ、カーボンプライシング）の効果分析に応用可能。特に、セクター別の調整コストや景気局面依存性の知見は、日本政府が進める「成長志向型カーボンプライシング」の設計において示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
This paper provides direct empirical evidence on the macroeconomic costs of emission reductions, distinct from carbon price effects. Its findings on state-dependence, cross-country heterogeneity, and sectoral channels are highly relevant to the design of the EU Green Deal and global climate policy. The methodological innovation (comparing quantity-based vs. price-based projections) advances the debate on the economic impacts of decarbonization, informing both ISSB-aligned transition plans and national climate strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides rigorous causal estimates of emission reduction costs using local projections, with important methodological comparisons to carbon price studies.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for corporate transition planning by identifying sectoral channels (road transport, manufacturing) and macroeconomic context for emission reduction costs.
🏛政策担当者:Directly informs the design of the EU Green Deal and Just Transition Mechanism, with evidence on state-dependent costs and structural heterogeneity among countries.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of greenhouse gas emission reductions on per-capita GDP in the EU-27 over 1995–2024 using Local Projections (Jordà, 2005). We analyse four gases (CO2, CO2bio, CH4, and N2O) at the aggregate EU-27 level, by country, and by IPCC activity sector. Our approach identifies the output cost of actual emission reductions—a distinct causal object from the carbonpriceeffects estimated by Metcalf and Stock (2023): a direct empirical comparison shows that price-based and quantity-based Local Projections yield opposite signs, confirming that they identify different structural parameters. Six findings emerge. First, fossil CO2 reductions carry a statistically robust negative effect on GDP, peaking at −0.10 pp per 1% reduction at a two-year horizon. Second, annual estimates for CH4 and N2O reveal consistently negative directional patterns invisible at quarterly frequency, reflecting a signal-to-noise limitation rather than genuine economic independence. Third, CO2 effects are strongly state-dependent: expansion-period costs are approximately twice as large as recession-period costs. Fourth, cross-country heterogeneity maps onto three structural mechanisms—carbon intensity of production, service-sector share, and economic size—with the smallest, most carbon-intensive economies bearing the largest adjustment costs. Fifth, Road Transportation and Manufacturing are the primary sectoral channels. Sixth, Anderson–Rubin inference establishes that OLS estimates are conservative lower bounds on the true causal cost, with the direction of bias confirmed by four descriptive tests supporting the exclusion restriction of the ETS instrument. These results carry direct implications for the design of the EU Green Deal and the Just Transition Mechanism. JEL Classification: C33, Q43, Q54, Q58, O44.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9629419/v1first seen 2026-05-14 22:57:31
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