Dual-Leverage Effects of Embeddedness and Emission Costs on ESCO Financing: Engineering-Driven Design and Dynamic Decision-Making in Low-Carbon Supply Chains

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🔬研究者:Provides a novel Stackelberg game model linking embedding degree, emission cost, and financing mode in low-carbon supply chains.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for ESCOs and supply chain managers on selecting financing modes under carbon quota policies.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights how subsidy and green bond policies can influence ESCO financing preferences and overall emission reduction.

Against the backdrop of carbon quota trading policies and Energy Performance Contracting (EPC), Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) engage in supply chain emission reduction via embedded low-carbon services. However, the impact mechanism of their financing mode selection on emission reduction efficiency and economic benefits has not been fully revealed, and there is a lack of support from a systematic theoretical and engineering design framework. Therefore, this study innovatively constructs a multi-agent Stackelberg game model with bank financing, green bond financing, and internal factoring financing. We incorporate the embedding degree, emission reduction cost coefficient, and financing mode selection into a unified analysis framework. The research findings are as follows: (1) There is a significant positive linear relationship between supply chain profit and the embedding degree. In contrast, the profit of ESCOs shows an inverted “U-shaped” change trend. Moreover, there is a sustainable cooperation threshold for each of the three financing modes. (2) Green bond financing can significantly increase the overall emission reduction rate of the industrial supply chain in high-embedding-degree scenarios. However, due to emission reduction investment cost pressure, ESCOs tend to choose bank financing. (3) The dynamic change of the emission reduction investment cost coefficient will trigger a reversal effect on the financing preferences of the supply chain and ESCOs. This study unveils the internal mechanism of multi-party decision-making in the low-carbon industrial supply chain and is supported by cross-country institutional evidence and comparative case-based analysis, providing a scientific basis and engineering design guidance for optimizing ESCO financing strategies, crafting incentive contracts, and enhancing government subsidy policies.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.3390/math14030522first seen 2026-05-05 22:09:55