Renewable energy transition in Poland: scenario-based analysis of solar and wind integration in the power system
ポーランドにおける再生可能エネルギー移行：太陽光と風力の電力系統統合のシナリオ分析 (AI 翻訳)
Adrian Marszałkowski, Weronika Kruszelnicka
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文はポーランドの再エネ導入現状と将来シナリオを分析。2023年の再エネ比率27%、石炭依存60.5%を踏まえ、太陽光・風力の統合シナリオをシミュレーション。系統制約や規制障壁（700mルール）が課題であり、多様化・蓄電拡大が必要と結論。
English
This paper analyzes Poland's renewable energy status and future scenarios, with 27% RES share in 2023 but 60.5% coal. It simulates four scenarios (current, PV, wind, combined) using real weather and demand data. Results show combined PV+wind is most balanced but backup capacity remains essential. Barriers include grid constraints, curtailment, and regulatory hurdles like the 700m rule for wind.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ポーランドの事例は、石炭依存からの脱却と再エネ導入拡大の課題を示しており、日本の送電網制約や規制障壁への対応に参考となる可能性がある。
In the global GX context
This study offers a scenario-based methodology for assessing solar and wind integration in a coal-dependent power system, relevant for EU energy transition policy and global discussions on grid modernization and renewable integration barriers.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a simulation framework using real data that can be applied to other countries' energy transition analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights specific regulatory and grid constraints (e.g., 700m rule) that impact renewable project development and system planning.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the need for grid modernization, storage expansion, and stable regulation to achieve higher RES shares.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract This article examines the current status and development prospects of renewable energy sources (RES) in Poland in the context of the national energy transition and European climate objectives. The study addresses three research questions concerning the role of RES in Poland’s energy mix, their development potential, and the main opportunities and barriers to increasing their share. The research combines a literature and data review with scenario-based simulations using the Polish Power System Simulator, based on real weather data from 2015–2023 and electricity demand from 2023. Four scenarios were analysed: the current state, PV-based, wind-based, and combined PV + wind. The results show that RES already play a significant role in Poland’s energy sector. In 2023, their share reached 27%, with total installed capacity of 28.6 GW, increasing to 33.3 GW in 2024, dominated by photo-voltaics and wind. Despite this growth, coal still accounted for 60.5% of electricity generation in 2023, indicating continued dependence on conventional sources. The analysis identifies solar and wind energy as the main drivers of future RES development. However, further expansion is limited by grid constraints, connection refusals, curtailment, regulatory barriers (including the 700 m rule for wind farms), and insufficient storage and flexibility resources. Simulation results indicate that the combined PV + wind scenario provides the most balanced and resilient system configuration due to complementary generation profiles. Nevertheless, dispatchable backup capacity remains necessary. Achieving a higher RES share is technically feasible but requires diversification, grid modernisation, expanded storage, and stable regulatory conditions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.30657/pea.2026.32.20first seen 2026-05-14 23:33:13
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