Carbon-Neutral Power Transitions under Constraints: A Comparative Energy-Economic View of China, the United States and the European Union

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a structured framework linking constraints, policy, and system costs in power sector decarbonization.

🏢実務担当者:Useful for power utilities and energy firms to understand how flexibility and market signals will affect investment and operations.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for flexibility valuation, robust MRV, and grid reforms to achieve cost-effective carbon neutrality.

碳中和目标目前正在加速电力部门的脱碳进程。然而，中国、美国和欧盟正采取显著不同的转型路径。本文运用能源经济学框架，将约束性系统约束、政策组合与系统总成本联系起来，以比较三国之间的差异。该分析整合了国际评估和同行评审研究中关于可变可再生能源（VRE）价值与灵活性的证据。结果表明，随着可再生能源占比上升，经济瓶颈从发电成本转向灵活性和电网输电：风能和太阳能的边际市场价值随渗透率提高而下降，而可调度系统服务的价值则上升。欧盟的总量控制与交易体系及市场一体化增强了长期稀缺性预期，但若缺乏适当的对冲设计，则会增加短期价格波动的风险。美国在缺乏国家碳价的情况下，更依赖技术中立的税收抵免来降低资本成本并加速部署。中国将大规模清洁基础设施建设与持续的煤炭供应保障相结合，这使得灵活性补偿、跨省输电和可靠的排放限制成为实现成本效益型脱碳的关键。对中国而言，政策影响在于将灵活性视为脱碳资产，通过改进监测、报告和核查（MRV）强化市场信号，并通过电网和市场改革减少停电。

AI 翻訳（deepseek-v4-flash）。 正確を期す場合は下の原文を参照してください。

Carbon neutrality is currently accelerating the decarbonization process in the power sector. However, China, the United States, and the European Union are taking significantly different transformation paths. This article uses an energy economics framework to link binding system constraints, policy combinations, and the overall system costs to compare the differences among the three countries. This analysis integrates evidence from international assessments and peer-reviewed studies regarding the value and flexibility of variable renewable energy (VRE). The results show that as the share of renewable energy increases, economic bottlenecks shift from generation costs to flexibility and grid transmission: the marginal market value of wind and solar energy decreases as penetration rates increase, while the value of dispatchable system services increases. The EU's total control and trading system and market integration enhance long-term scarcity expectations, but without appropriate hedging designs, they increase the risk of short-term price fluctuations. The United States relies more on technology-neutral tax credits to reduce capital costs and accelerate deployment in the absence of a national carbon price. China combines large-scale clean infrastructure construction with continuous coal supply guarantees, which makes flexibility compensation, inter-provincial transmission, and reliable emission limits key to achieving cost-effective decarbonization. For China, the policy impact lies in regarding flexibility as a decarbonization asset, strengthening market signals through improved monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV), and reducing power outages through grid and market reforms.

• semanticscholar https://aemps.ewapub.com/article/view/32208.pdffirst seen 2026-05-15 17:18:17 · last seen 2026-08-16 05:30:16