The missing climate: issue competition and structural invisibility in Nigeria’s 2023 electoral agenda
欠落した気候：ナイジェリア2023年選挙課題における問題競争と構造的不可視性 (AI 翻訳)
Dominic Ayegba Okoliko, Kevin Igwe, Mehita Iqani
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
この研究は、ナイジェリアの2023年大統領選挙における気候変動の議題上の重要性を分析。壊滅的な洪水やCOP27などの気候関連イベントがあったにもかかわらず、気候変動は選挙討論で軽視され、17のうち11位にランクされた。ゼロショットBERTopicを用いた分析により、気候変動は政党マニフェストで中程度の顕著性を持つが、選挙演説では無視され、食料安全保障（3位）との関連付けも不足していることが明らかになった。
English
This study analyzes the salience of climate change in Nigeria's 2023 presidential election. Despite devastating floods and COP27, climate ranked 11th out of 17 issues. Using zero-shot BERTopic, it finds climate modest in manifestos but absent in campaign speeches, with an attribution gap where climate-linked issues (e.g., food security) are discussed without climate framing.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ナイジェリアの事例は、日本の気候政策の可視性や選挙での位置づけを考察する上で参考になる。日本の選挙でも気候変動の優先順位は低く、同様の構造的課題が存在する可能性がある。
In the global GX context
Nigeria's case illustrates how structural political economy constraints can limit climate issue salience even during acute vulnerability. This offers comparative insights for global discussions on climate policy visibility in resource-dependent democracies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:For GX researchers, this paper demonstrates how agenda-setting theory and NLP methods can quantify climate issue salience in political discourse.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note that even ambitious climate laws may not translate into electoral visibility without targeted issue-linking strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election constituted a ‘most likely’ case for climate politicization: it followed devastating floods affecting 34 of Nigeria’s 36 states, unfolded against the backdrop of COP27 in neighbouring Egypt, and occurred during the first full electoral cycle after the Climate Change Act entered force. Yet contemporaneous commentary suggested that electoral debate remained dominated by economic hardship, insecurity, and corruption. This study examines whether acute vulnerability and recent policy advances elevated climate change onto Nigeria’s electoral agenda or whether structural constraints continued to render it politically marginal. Drawing on agenda-setting and issue-salience theories, we apply zero-shot BERTopic modelling and an issue-competition framework to analyse the relative salience of climate change across party manifestos, campaign speeches, and newspaper coverage. The analysis shows that climate change ranked 11th of 17 identified issue categories ( S = 0.23), below ethnic and identity appeals, food security, and infrastructure. Despite food security ranking third, climate change scored approximately 48% lower ( S = 0.23), indicating an attribution gap in which climate-affected outcomes were discussed without explicit climate framing. Climate achieved modest salience in manifestos, failed to register in campaign speeches, and re-emerged unevenly in media coverage, suggesting a broader pattern of programmatic acknowledgement without performative politicization. No party demonstrated climate issue ownership, and correlation analysis revealed strong crowding-out by democracy discourse and missed integration with food security. These findings suggest that in resource-dependent democracies, structural political economy constraints may outweigh temporal opportunities, helping to explain why ambitious climate policies coexist with persistent electoral invisibility.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae78b3first seen 2026-06-26 04:51:54
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。