Sun, wind, and a changing climate: Will Curaçao’s renewable energy future hold under climate change?
太陽光と風力、そして気候変動：キュラソーの再生可能エネルギーの将来は気候変動に耐えられるか？ (AI 翻訳)
Thu T. Nguyen (4512883)
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、小島嶼開発途上国（SIDS）であるキュラソーを対象に、気候変動が風力と太陽光（PV）の資源ポテンシャルに与える影響を評価。ERA5データとCMIP6マルチモデルアンサンブルを用いた解析の結果、年平均では安定するものの、季節変動が顕著で、特に需要ピーク期に供給が不足するリスクが明らかになった。再生可能エネルギー計画における気候変動適応の重要性を強調している。
English
This study assesses climate change impacts on wind and solar PV potential for Curaçao, a Small Island Developing State. Using ERA5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, it finds annual resource stability but strong seasonal shifts, with supply-demand mismatch risks during peak demand periods. Results underscore the need for climate-informed renewable energy planning with storage and flexibility.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
離島系統を持つ日本（沖縄など）にとって、再生可能エネルギーの気候依存性と季節変動リスクを具体的に示す点で示唆に富む。日本のエネルギー基本計画や地域エネルギー計画において、気候変動を考慮した系統運用の重要性を再認識させる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a case study of climate-driven renewable variability in an island grid, relevant for global SIDS and regions with high renewable penetration. It highlights the need for energy storage and flexible systems, contributing to the broader discussion on climate-resilient energy transition.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Energy system modelers and climate impact researchers should note the seasonal supply-demand mismatch methodology applicable to other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Utility and renewable energy planners can use the findings to integrate climate variability into resource adequacy assessments.
🏛政策担当者:Energy policymakers in island nations or remote grids should consider climate-informed planning for renewable targets.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Renewable energy is central to climate mitigation, yet its reliability depends on atmospheric conditions that are themselves changing. This challenge is particularly acute for Small Island Developing States, where isolated grids and heavy dependence on imported fuels constrain energy system flexibility. Curaçao exemplifies this condition, importing 99% of its fuels yet pressing forward with an ambitious transition to 100% renewable energy by 2045. This study addresses a gap in prior research on translating climate variables (solar radiation, wind speed, and air temperature) to renewable resource potential by combining ERA5 reanalysis data (2010–2014) with a multi-model CMIP6 ensemble to estimate changes in wind power density and photovoltaic (PV) potential under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Results show that annual resource availability remains stable, with PV potential declining slightly by approximately -1-2% and wind power density increasing modestly by about +5–10% under high-emissions conditions by the end of the century. However, the study finds strong seasonal variability: wind power density declines by ~ -20% to -60% during August–November, while PV output decreases by ~5–10% during peak temperature months due to thermal efficiency losses. More importantly, these reductions coincide with peak electricity demand periods (2019–2024), highlighting growing supply–demand mismatch risks driven by climate-induced seasonal redistribution. These results show that climate change primarily affects renewable timing for Curaçao, highlighting the need for climate-informed planning that incorporates storage, system flexibility, and seasonal reliability.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/62541first seen 2026-05-18 04:43:20 · last seen 2026-05-20 04:52:06
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