Strategic retrenchment in the energy transition: Shell Pernis and the emergence of second-order carbon lock-in
エネルギー移行における戦略的再編：Shell Pernisと第二種カーボンロックインの出現 (AI 翻訳)
Gregory C. Unruh, Fernanda Arreola, Pablo del Río
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
シェル・ペルニス製油所の事例を通じて、第一種カーボンロックインの緩和が第二種カーボンロックインを活性化し、脱炭素化を妨げるメカニズムを明らかにした。政策介入が既存のロックインを弱めても、新たな高次な障壁が生じることを示す。エネルギー転換政策への示唆を含む。
English
This study examines Shell's Pernis refinery to reveal how relaxing first-order carbon lock-in can trigger second-order lock-in, redirecting or delaying deep decarbonization. It introduces a distinction between first- and second-order lock-in and shows that policy interventions may activate dormant systemic forces that constrain transition pathways. The findings challenge assumptions that weakening lock-in automatically accelerates energy transitions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
この研究は、日本でも関心の高い「カーボンロックイン」の概念を発展させ、政策介入の予期せぬ効果を指摘する。日本のGX政策（例：CCSや水素への補助金）においても、同様の第二種ロックインが発生する可能性を示唆し、政策設計の注意点を提供する。
In the global GX context
This paper is particularly relevant for global GX as it introduces a nuanced view of carbon lock-in that goes beyond the usual techno-institutional inertia. For policymakers under ISSB/TCFD frameworks, it warns that simplistic interventions may backfire, urging a systems-oriented approach to transition planning. It complements debates on transition finance by highlighting hidden barriers.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Introduces a theoretical distinction between first- and second-order carbon lock-in, providing a new lens for studying incumbent firm behavior during energy transitions.
🏢実務担当者:Warns corporate sustainability teams that policy-driven de-risking of fossil assets may trigger unforeseen systemic inertia, requiring more holistic transition strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests that climate policy design must anticipate second-order lock-in mechanisms to avoid ineffective or counterproductive outcomes.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Overcoming carbon lock-in is widely seen as essential for enabling energy transitions, yet empirical cases that reveal how incumbent firms respond when lock-in pressures are relaxed are limited. This article examines the case of Shell's Rotterdam Pernis refinery. In this instance, multiple policy, legal, and governance interventions were enacted simultaneously, creating an opportunity to observe incumbent behavior once traditional lock-in conditions were weakened. This situation allows a distinction between first-order carbon lock-in , referring to recognized lock-in mechanisms rooted in a focal techno-institutional context, and second-order carbon lock-in , referring to dormant mechanisms that become activated once first-order constraints are relaxed. In the Pernis case, the weakening of first-order lock-in did not lead to deep decarbonization. Instead, it triggered higher-level systemic forces that remain underexamined in current theory. These forces redirected, delayed, or narrowed the firm's decarbonization trajectory, frustrating energy transition intentions. The findings illustrate how interventions designed to unlock fossil fuel dependence can activate latent forms of inertia that can constrain transition pathways. This insight contributes to understanding the dynamics of carbon lock-in and raises questions for climate policy design in global industries.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2026.104718first seen 2026-05-17 04:32:53
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