Research on the Forecasting of Strategic Mineral Resource Scrap and Gap Rate of Electric Vehicles Based on a Life Cycle Perspective
ライフサイクル視点に基づく電気自動車の戦略的鉱物資源スクラップとギャップ率の予測に関する研究 (AI 翻訳)
Yuzheng Gao, Jing An, Yijie Zhang, Junyi Chen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、電気自動車（EV）のライフサイクル全体を通じて、リチウムイオン電池と充電インフラに含まれる戦略的鉱物資源のスクラップ量と回収可能性を予測した。中国の乗用EVを対象に6つのシナリオを設定し、2010～2050年のデータを分析。リチウム、コバルト、ニッケルなどの多くは電池由来であり、リサイクルの重要性を示す。また、需要とリサイクル供給のギャップ率を算出し、一部元素で不足が生じることを明らかにした。
English
This study forecasts the scrap and recovery volumes of strategic mineral resources in lithium-ion batteries and charging infrastructure for China's passenger EVs from a life cycle perspective (2010–2050). Six scenarios analyze 20 metallic and 3 non-metallic resources, showing that over 97% of Li, Co, Ni, and Al come from batteries, while Fe and Cu from charging piles show notable growth. Gap rate analysis reveals supply-demand mismatches for nine elements, with some turning negative due to technology phase-outs.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国のEV普及に伴う資源制約を定量的に示し、日本企業のバリューチェーン戦略やリサイクル技術開発に示唆を与える。ただし、日本特有の政策文脈（SSBJなど）との直接的な関連は薄い。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a quantitative forecast of strategic mineral scrap and supply gaps for EVs in China, offering insights for global supply chain resilience and recycling investment. While China-specific, the methodology can be adapted to other markets and informs the circular economy dimension of the energy transition.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a systematic forecasting framework for resource scrap and gap rates, valuable for sustainability and circular economy modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Useful for corporate supply chain and recycling teams to anticipate resource bottlenecks and plan secondary material sourcing.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights potential supply risks for critical minerals, supporting policy development on recycling infrastructure and import diversification.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs) will inevitably consume substantial scarce resources, posing risks and challenges to their supply chains. From a life cycle perspective, this study innovatively incorporates charging piles (CPs) into the research scope. Six scenarios are established to quantitatively analyze the scrap and recovery volume of 20 metallic and 3 non-metallic strategic mineral resources in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) and CPs for China’s passenger EVs during 2010–2050. Under six scenarios, the results show that Al in LIBs and Fe in CPs have the highest scrap volumes, increasing from 2.69 t in 2010 to 2.98 × 106 t in 2050 and from 34.76 t in 2024 to 1.14 × 106 t in 2050, respectively. In contrast, Co in LIBs and Zr in CPs have the smallest scrap volumes, increasing from 0.22 t in 2012 to 8.25 × 104 t in 2050 and from 8.8 × 10−7 t in 2024 to 1.52 × 10−5 t in 2050, respectively. Over 97% of Li, Co, Ni, and Al originates from LIBs during 2026–2050, while Fe and Cu from CPs show notable growth, underscoring recycling urgency. Recycle-demand analysis in LIB reveals the gap rate for nine elements. Seven elements’ gap rates are 0.39–0.81 (GI = 80%) and 0.25–0.75 (GI = 100%), while Fe’s gap rate turns to 0 in 2045 due to LFP phase-out and P’s gap rate reaches −1.22 (GI = 80%) and −1.77 (GI = 100%) in 2045 before rebounding.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.3390/su18031300first seen 2026-05-05 22:22:03
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。