When Paying the Carbon Tax is Cheaper: Policy Gaps and Fossil Lock-in Under the EU CBAM in Pakistan
炭素税を支払う方が安い場合：EUのCBAM下での政策ギャップと化石燃料ロックイン in パキスタン (AI 翻訳)
Gordhan Das Valasai, Abdul Moiz Arain, null Rao Huzaifa Aslam, null Khuda Bux Mari
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、EUのCBAMがパキスタンの電力セクターに与える影響を2022年から2050年にかけて分析した。国内炭素税をEU ETSと同等に設定しても、発電構成に変化はなく、化石燃料ロックインが確認された。CBAM負担は2026年の3500万ドルから2034年には年間80億ドル超に拡大する。意味ある脱炭素には、再生可能エネルギー目標と技術インフラ政策が必要である。
English
This study assesses CBAM's impact on Pakistan's power sector using OSeMOSYS. It finds that domestic carbon pricing at EU ETS parity induces no shift in generation mix due to high marginal abatement costs. CBAM exposure grows from $35 million in 2026 to over $8 billion by 2034. Meaningful decarbonization requires binding renewable targets rather than carbon pricing alone.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業が関与するサプライチェーンにおいてもCBAMの影響は無視できず、途上国における排出削減の困難さを示す本分析は、日本のカーボンプライシング政策や国際協力の議論に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence that carbon pricing alone may not drive decarbonization in developing countries under CBAM, highlighting the need for complementary policies—a key insight for global carbon market and trade policy discussions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Researchers studying carbon pricing effectiveness and CBAM impacts will find strong evidence of fossil lock-in and the limitations of carbon pricing alone.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers in developing countries and trade negotiators should note that carbon tax parity is insufficient without binding renewable targets and infrastructure policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) presents considerable challenges for developing countries with carbon-intensive export sectors. This study assesses CBAM‘s impact on Pakistan’s power sector transition from 2022 to 2050. The Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), implemented in Python, was used with a least-cost optimisation framework comprising 21 generation technologies and 16 temporal time slices. Four scenarios were evaluated: business-as-usual, domestic carbon taxation at 50% and 100% of European Union Emissions Trading System prices, and a feasibility-constrained renewable pathway. The discount rate was set at 10%, consistent with National Electric Power Regulatory Authority determinations. Domestic carbon pricing alone, even at full EU ETS parity ($110/tCO₂ in 2030, rising to $250/tCO₂ by 2050), induces no measurable shift in the generation mix. Legacy hydropower maintains roughly a 28% share, while new variable renewable energy penetration remains below 1%. This “economic lock-in” occurs because the marginal abatement cost exceeds the carbon tax. CBAM exposure increases from $35 million in 2026 to over $8 billion annually by 2034. Meaningful power sector decarbonisation requires binding renewable targets and technology-specific infrastructure policies rather than carbon pricing instruments alone.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.70112/arme-2025.14.2.4320first seen 2026-05-14 21:17:08
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