Conservative Party of Canada — Federal Election Platform 2021 Report

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🔬研究者:Energy system modelers and climate policy researchers can examine the methodology for assessing political platform impacts and the transparency of assumptions and data.

🏢実務担当者:Sustainability teams in Canada can use the findings to understand potential policy shifts, while international practitioners can learn from the assessment framework.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can observe how electoral platforms are quantitatively evaluated, informing evidence-based policy design and communication.

This report briefly summarizes a standardized energy system assessment of the Conservative Party of Canada’s 2021 federal election platform. It was conducted and authored by the Open Insights team through their Energy Policy Monitor (EPM) platform. The assessment compares the platform’s stated energy and climate policies against a current-policies baseline to estimate their impact on Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions, energy system, and technology deployment pathways. Results are compared against a current-policies baseline reflecting the policy environment as of Q1 2020. Note: This summary does not interpret or evaluate the platform. It presents model outputs transparently and without political judgment. All underlying data, code, and assumptions are publicly available. KEY POLICIES ASSESSED Policies Repealed Policies Introduced or Maintained · Federal consumer carbon price · Federal clean electricity regulation (CER) · Zero-Emission Vehicle mandate (100% by 2035) · 30% ZEV mandate for light-duty vehicles by 2030 · 15% Renewable Natural gas mandate · 5$ B in Carbon Capture Tax Credit · Maintain industrial carbon pricing (OBPS) · Replace consumer carbon price with a personal low carbon saving account (50$/tonne by 2030) · Clean Electricity Regulations Full policy encoding available: epm.openinsights.ca/encoding Full assumptions available: docs.google.com/assumptions KEY FINDINGS Total Emissions Sectoral Emissions Energy Demand (by 2050) 2025: ~ 677 Mt CO2e (vs. 691 Mt baseline with 2021 implemented policies) 2030: ~ 633 Mt CO2e(vs. ~ 673 Mt baseline) 6% decrease from 2021 baseline Manufacturing & Industry: Sector most affected by the policies introduced by 2030 (~17.9 Mt CO2e decrease to baseline by 2030) Significant impact on the transportation sector by 2050 ( ~59.27 Mt CO2e decrease) Electricity: Increase of ~23.03 Mt CO2e by 2050 compared to baseline Electricity Demand: ~300 PJ increase Oil products: ~910 PJ decrease by 2050 Total Energy Demand: ~260 PJ decrease Natural Gas: ~74 PJ increase Hydrogen: ~233 PJ increase Bioenergy: ~13 PJ decrease Full findings can be available (reviewed and replicated): epm.openinsights.ca/results Key Uncertainties and Limitations · Several structural uncertainties affect the confidence with which these results should be interpreted. Behavioural responses to the removal of the consumer carbon price — particularly around vehicle purchase decisions, home heating choices, and fuel switching — are modelled using standard elasticities. Actual consumer responses may differ (such as changes due to fuel price trajectories, household income distributions, and the design details of the Low Carbon Savings Account, which were not fully specified in the platform). · Tax credit reform details were insufficient for precise modeling. The 5B $ tax credit for CCUS was used for two specific sectors: petroleum crude and iron & steel. · Provincial policy interactions (e.g., Quebec cap-and-trade, BC carbon tax) are maintained at current levels in both scenarios. Methodology and Transparency This assessment applies the same standardized methodology to all parties and platforms. EPM assessments do not endorse, recommend, or evaluate any policy platform.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20314490first seen 2026-06-08 04:34:16