Carbon Commodity Linkages in Emerging and Mature Markets: Comparative Evidence from Indonesia and the EU ETS
新興市場と成熟市場におけるカーボンコモディティの連関：インドネシアとEU ETSの比較エビデンス (AI 翻訳)
Naufal Firdaus, Atina Husnaqilati
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、インドネシア（2024-2025年）とEU ETS（2015-2025年）のデータを用い、炭素価格と主要コモディティ価格の関係を多手法（相関分析、クラスタリング、ランダム行列理論、VAR）で比較。インドネシアでは炭素価格とコモディティ間に安定した連関が見られず、ノイズが支配的である一方、EUでは天然ガスが炭素価格の主な変動要因であり、時間変動する強い共変動が確認された。市場の成熟度とエネルギーシステム構造が炭素-コモディティ連関を形成することを示す。
English
This study compares carbon price linkages with major commodities in Indonesia's nascent IDX Carbon market and the mature EU ETS using correlation analysis, clustering, random matrix theory, and VAR. Results show Indonesia's market is noise-driven with no stable links, while the EU exhibits strong comovement driven by natural gas. Findings highlight how market maturity and energy system structure shape carbon-commodity interactions, informing carbon market design for emerging economies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は2023年からGX-ETS（排出量取引制度）を開始したばかりであり、新興市場の運営課題を理解する上で本稿の示唆は有用。特に、市場成熟度に応じて炭素価格が他商品と連動するメカニズムが異なる点は、日本の制度設計における価格安定化策や市場監視の参考となる。
In the global GX context
As emerging carbon markets like Indonesia's IDX Carbon develop globally, this comparative analysis provides critical evidence on how market maturity affects carbon price formation and commodity linkages. The findings support the design of effective carbon pricing mechanisms in new markets, particularly regarding price discovery and volatility management.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides novel empirical evidence on carbon-commodity linkages using random matrix theory in both emerging and mature markets, offering methodological insights for studying price dynamics in less liquid carbon markets.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of market infrastructure and energy structure for carbon price formation, offering guidance for regulators designing carbon markets in emerging economies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study investigates the relationship between carbon prices and major food, energy, and mineral commodities in Indonesia and Europe using a multi method framework that includes correlation analysis, hierarchical clustering, random matrix theory (RMT), rolling window eigenvalue diagnostics, and vector autoregression (VAR). The Indonesian dataset (2024–2025) reflects the early stage of the IDX Carbon market, while the European dataset (2015–2025) represents the mature structure of the EU Emissions Trading System. The combination of RMT filtering and VAR modelling allows for the identification of systemic comovement and dynamic transmission channels. The results show a clear contrast between the two markets. In Indonesia, correlation measures, clustering patterns, and RMT indicators suggest that commodity price movements are mostly noise driven, with no stable link between carbon prices and food, energy, or mineral commodities. In Europe, the eigenvalue spectrum, the systemic risk index, and rolling RMT patterns reveal strong and time varying comovement across energy and metal commodities, with VAR results identifying natural gas as the main driver of carbon price dynamics. Overall, the findings highlight how market maturity and energy system structure shape carbon commodity interactions and offer guidance for carbon market design in emerging economies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.22805first seen 2026-05-15 17:08:47
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