Risk spillovers from climate policy uncertainty to energy markets: Does climate policy stringency matter?
気候政策の不確実性からエネルギー市場へのリスク波及：気候政策の厳格性は重要か？ (AI 翻訳)
Di Ma, Qingyuan Zhu, Muhammad Ali Nasir
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、気候政策の不確実性（CPU）と世界のエネルギー市場との間の複雑なリスク伝染を、改良された高次元時変パラメータVARモデルを用いて分析。さらに、二重機械学習（DML）手法を適用し、厳格な気候政策がCPUからエネルギー市場へのリスクを軽減できるか検証。結果、CPUはエネルギー市場のリスクと高い関連性があり、リスク波及は時変特性を示し国によって異なる。また、気候政策の厳格性（CPS）がリスク軽減に有意な役割を果たすことを発見。
English
This paper examines the risk contagion between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and global energy markets using an improved high-dimensional time-varying parameter VAR model. It also applies dual machine learning to test whether stringent climate policies can mitigate CPU risks. Results show strong association between CPU and energy market risks, with time-varying spillovers varying across countries. Climate policy stringency (CPS) significantly alleviates the risk from CPU to energy markets.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
この研究は、気候政策の不確実性がエネルギー市場に与えるリスク波及を定量的に示し、政策の厳格性がリスク軽減に有効であることを実証している。日本のGX文脈では、政府のGX推進政策（GX実現に向けた基本方針など）が市場にどのような影響を与えるか、また政策の一貫性・厳格性の重要性を示唆する点で示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on how climate policy uncertainty affects energy markets and how policy stringency can mitigate spillover risks. Globally, it contributes to understanding the financial stability implications of climate policy (aligned with TCFD/NGFS work). It suggests that credible, stringent climate policy reduces uncertainty and market risk, which is relevant for transition finance and climate scenario analysis.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:GX researchers can use this to understand the time-varying risk transmission between climate policy uncertainty and energy markets, and the mitigating role of policy stringency.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can consider how climate policy uncertainty affects energy costs and risk exposure, and the value of policy engagement.
🏛政策担当者:Regulators should note that stringent climate policies reduce risk spillovers, supporting financial stability and the case for decisive climate action.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper describes the complex risk contagion between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and the global energy market utilizing an improved high-dimensional time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (HD-TVP-VAR) model. A dual machine learning (DML) approach is applied to test whether strict climate policies can mitigate the risk from CPU to energy market. The results indicate that the CPU is highly associated with the risk of energy markets. The risk spillover of CPU exhibits evident time-varying characteristics, and its impact on the energy markets of various countries varies. Furthermore, we find that climate policy stringency (CPS) plays a significant role in alleviating the risk from CPU to the energy market. These results provide valuable insights into the effective identification of CPU's risk contagion paths in global energy market.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109359first seen 2026-05-05 19:13:50
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。