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Scenario analysis of electric and hybrid mobility pathways for light-duty transport in Ecuador

Hidalgo, Daniel, López, Mónica

Zenodoプレプリント2026-05-22#EV・輸送
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20337328
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/20337328
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究はエクアドルの軽量車両の脱炭素化経路を評価。2050年までのシナリオ（現状維持、国家電動化戦略、ハイブリッド）をOSeMOSYSで分析し、BEVが最大の排出削減効果（2.44 MtCO₂e）を示す一方、HEVも移行期に有効と結論。

English

This study evaluates Ecuador's light-duty vehicle decarbonization pathways to 2050 using OSeMOSYS. It finds that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) aligned with the National Electromobility Strategy achieve the highest emission reductions (2.44 MtCO₂e, 23% of NDC target), while hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) also provide significant reductions (2.06 MtCO₂e) and can serve as a transitional technology.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

エクアドルの事例は、途上国におけるEV導入戦略と電力系統の整合性を示しており、日本のASEANなどへの技術協力の参考になる。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a quantitative comparison of BEV and HEV pathways in a developing country context, offering insights for policymakers balancing long-term decarbonization with near-term infrastructure constraints.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Demonstrates a modeling framework (OSeMOSYS) for transport scenario analysis in emerging economies.

🏢実務担当者:Shows the potential of HEVs as a transitional option while charging infrastructure scales up.

🏛政策担当者:Provides evidence for integrating electromobility strategies with power sector planning to maximize emission reductions.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Ecuador’s transport sector is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions within the national energy system, making light-duty vehicle decarbonization a key priority for climate mitigation. This study evaluates alternative mobility transition pathways for Ecuador between 2022 and 2050 using the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) through MUIO. Three scenarios are assessed: a business-as-usual scenario (BAU), an electromobility scenario aligned with Ecuador’s National Electromobility Strategy (ENEM), and a hybrid electric vehicle scenario (HEV) that explores the role of hybrid vehicles under slower battery electric vehicle deployment. The results show that both ENEM and HEV reduce emissions compared with BAU by 2035. ENEM achieves the highest mitigation potential, reducing emissions by 2.44 MtCO₂e and contributing approximately 23% to the Second NDC target, while HEV reduces emissions by 2.06 MtCO₂e and contributes approximately 19%. Both scenarios also reduce cumulative energy demand over 2022–2050, with ENEM achieving a 12.14% reduction and HEV a 6.14% reduction relative to BAU. Under ENEM, transport electrification requires a cleaner electricity supply, supported mainly by hydropower, with additional solar and wind generation. The HEV scenario also improves energy security by reducing total fuel imports, mainly gasoline and diesel. Overall, the findings suggest that battery electric vehicles should remain Ecuador’s long-term decarbonization pathway, while hybrid vehicles can support the transition by reducing emissions and fossil fuel dependence during the scaling-up of charging infrastructure and power syst

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