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Carbon cost pass-through rate in power system: evidence from Italy under the EU ETS

電力システムにおける炭素コスト転嫁率：EU ETS下のイタリアからの証拠 (AI 翻訳)

Pierdomenico Duttilo, Francesco Lisi

2026-04-03#炭素価格Origin: EU
原典: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b7fd4e66743235faf95fb01295c691e973a81db4

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、EU排出権取引制度（EU ETS）がイタリアの電力市場に与える影響を、炭素コスト転嫁率（CPTR）を通じて分析。2016～2024年の日次データを用い、線形回帰モデルで検証した結果、炭素コストは電力価格に有意に転嫁されるものの、全国平均で約30%と不完全であることが判明。地域別では、北部などで転嫁率が上昇する一方、南部やシチリアでは低下し、発電構成や炭素強度の差異が影響している。

English

This paper examines the pass-through of EU ETS carbon costs to Italian wholesale electricity prices from 2016 to 2024. Using daily data and regression with autoregressive dynamics, it finds that carbon costs are positively transmitted but incompletely, with a national average pass-through rate around 30%. Significant heterogeneity across market zones is observed, influenced by generation mix and carbon intensity. The results underscore that market zone factors shape carbon pricing effectiveness in electricity markets.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本でも炭素価格導入や電力システム改革が進むなか、本論文はゾーン別の炭素コスト転嫁率の実証分析を提供。日本の地域間格差や発電構成の違いを考慮した政策設計に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This study provides granular evidence on carbon cost pass-through across Italian market zones under the EU ETS, highlighting the role of local generation mix and carbon intensity. It contributes to global understanding of carbon pricing effectiveness in electricity markets, relevant for market design and policy evaluation.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Researchers can use the zone-level pass-through estimates and methodology to study carbon pricing impacts in other multi-zone electricity markets.

🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can assess how carbon costs affect electricity procurement costs across different regions, informing risk management.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can evaluate the effectiveness of carbon pricing in driving electricity price signals, and consider zone-specific factors for market design.

📄 Abstract（原文）

This paper investigates the impact of carbon pricing under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on the Italian electricity market, focusing on the carbon cost pass-through rate (CPTR) across market zones during Phases 3 and 4 (2016-2024). Using daily data, the study applies an econometric framework based on a linear regression model with autoregressive dynamics to estimate the extent to which carbon costs are reflected in wholesale electricity prices. It further incorporates robustness checks and quantile regression to assess how the CPTR varies across different fuel spread levels. The results show that carbon costs are positively and significantly transmitted to electricity prices, confirming the relevance of carbon pricing as a key market driver. However, pass-through is incomplete, with CPTR values consistently below 100%. At the national level, the CPTR remains relatively stable at around 30% across the two phases. Substantial heterogeneity emerges across market zones: pass-through increases in the North, Centre-North, and Sardinia during Phase 4, while it declines in the Centre-South and Sicily, reflecting differences in generation mix, carbon intensity, and market conditions. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of market zones factors in shaping the effectiveness of carbon pricing in electricity markets.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。