When the Remedy Is Worse Than the Illness: Carbon Performance and Growth Opportunities Under the EU ETS
治療法が病気より悪い場合：EU ETS下でのカーボンパフォーマンスと成長機会 (AI 翻訳)
Adrián Ferreras
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、EU排出量取引制度（ETS）の価格が企業の環境パフォーマンス（CEP）と成長期待（Tobin's Q）の関係に与える影響を分析。2005～2024年の15カ国・1370社のパネルデータを用い、CEPとQの間にU字型関係を確認し、価格が適度であればCEPの効果を高めるが、非常に高い価格では投資延期や不確実性によりその効果が減少・逆転することを示す。
English
This paper examines how EU ETS allowance prices reshape the link between corporate environmental performance (CEP) and growth expectations (Tobin's Q). Using a panel of 1370 listed firms across 15 European countries from 2005 to 2024, it confirms a U-shaped CEP-Q relationship and shows that modest allowance prices amplify CEP's benefits, but very high prices erode them through investment deferral and uncertainty, especially for leakage-exposed and high-emitting firms.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもカーボンプライシング導入が議論される中、本論文は価格の非線形的影響や脆弱企業への支援の必要性を示しており、制度設計に重要な示唆を提供する。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global carbon pricing literature by demonstrating nonlinear impacts of price stringency on corporate valuation, highlighting the importance of price corridors and targeted support for vulnerable firms under emissions trading systems.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the nonlinear and conditioning role of carbon prices in the CEP-valuation relationship, using high-dimensional fixed effects and a large European panel.
🏢実務担当者:Recommends hedging carbon-price risk and prioritizing high-impact abatement measures to maintain valuation under stringent ETS regimes.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests implementing price corridors and targeted support for leakage-exposed firms to ensure carbon markets promote rather than hinder sustainable growth.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper examines how the European Union Emissions Trading System allowance prices reshape the link between corporate environmental performance (CEP) and firms' growth expectations, measured by Tobin's Q. Using a panel of 1370 listed firms across 15 European countries from 2005 to 2024 and high‐dimensional fixed‐effects models, we first confirm a U‐shaped CEP–Q relationship: Initial emission cuts carry compliance costs, but beyond a threshold they deliver efficiency and reputational gains that boost valuation. We then show that allowance prices condition this pattern: Modest prices amplify CEP's upside, whereas very high prices erode—and, in extreme cases, reverse—its benefits through investment deferral, resource crowding out, and investor uncertainty. The erosion is economically substantial: Leakage‐exposed firms lose 65% of their CEP benefits as prices rise from low to very high levels, and high emitters lose 71%. Our findings highlight the nonlinear impact of carbon‐price stringency on investor expectations. For managers, we recommend hedging carbon‐price risk and prioritizing high‐impact abatement measures. For policymakers, establishing price corridors and providing targeted support to vulnerable firms can ensure carbon markets drive, rather than hinder, sustainable growth.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.70733first seen 2026-05-15 17:07:22
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