Scenario analysis of electric and hybrid mobility pathways for light-duty transport in Ecuador
エクアドルにおける軽量車両の電気・ハイブリッドモビリティ経路のシナリオ分析 (AI 翻訳)
Daniel Hidalgo, Mónica López
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は2022〜2050年のエクアドルにおける軽量車両の脱炭素化経路をOSeMOSYSで分析。BAU、ENEM（電動化戦略）、HEV（ハイブリッド）の3シナリオを比較し、ENEMが最大の排出削減（2.44 MtCO₂e、第2次NDC目標の23%相当）を達成することを示した。ハイブリッドも移行期の排出削減と燃料輸入削減に寄与する。
English
This study evaluates mobility transition pathways for Ecuador's light-duty transport (2022-2050) using OSeMOSYS. Three scenarios are compared: BAU, ENEM (national electromobility strategy), and HEV (hybrid). ENEM achieves the highest mitigation (2.44 MtCO₂e, ~23% of second NDC target) and reduces cumulative energy demand by 12.14%. HEV also reduces emissions and fossil fuel imports, supporting the transition while charging infrastructure scales up.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の運輸部門脱炭素化（EV/HV普及）政策の参考となる。特にハイブリッド車の移行期役割やエネルギーモデリング手法は日本の次期戦略策定にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global transport decarbonization literature by quantifying NDC-aligned pathways for an emerging economy. The modeling framework (OSeMOSYS) and comparison of BEV vs. hybrid strategies are relevant for countries designing electrification roadmaps.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Energy system modelers can adopt the OSeMOSYS approach for similar transport scenario analyses in other countries.
🏢実務担当者:Transport planners and utilities can use the findings to inform infrastructure investments and policy sequencing.
🏛政策担当者:Ecuadorian authorities can leverage the NDC contribution estimates to update climate targets; other developing nations can draw lessons for electrification planning.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Ecuador’s transport sector is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions within the national energy system, making light-duty vehicle decarbonization a key priority for climate mitigation. This study evaluates alternative mobility transition pathways for Ecuador between 2022 and 2050 using the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) through MUIO. Three scenarios are assessed: a business-as-usual scenario (BAU), an electromobility scenario aligned with Ecuador’s National Electromobility Strategy (ENEM), and a hybrid electric vehicle scenario (HEV) that explores the role of hybrid vehicles under slower battery electric vehicle deployment. The results show that both ENEM and HEV reduce emissions compared with BAU by 2035. ENEM achieves the highest mitigation potential, reducing emissions by 2.44 MtCO₂e and contributing approximately 23% to the Second NDC target, while HEV reduces emissions by 2.06 MtCO₂e and contributes approximately 19%. Both scenarios also reduce cumulative energy demand over 2022–2050, with ENEM achieving a 12.14% reduction and HEV a 6.14% reduction relative to BAU. Under ENEM, transport electrification requires a cleaner electricity supply, supported mainly by hydropower, with additional solar and wind generation. The HEV scenario also improves energy security by reducing total fuel imports, mainly gasoline and diesel. Overall, the findings suggest that battery electric vehicles should remain Ecuador’s long-term decarbonization pathway, while hybrid vehicles can support the transition by reducing emissions and fossil fuel dependence during the scaling-up of charging infrastructure and power syst
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20337327first seen 2026-06-12 04:43:46
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