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Beyond Grid Parity: A Framework for Value-Optimized Solar Investment in Decarbonized Energy Systems

グリッドパリティを超えて:脱炭素化エネルギーシステムにおける価値最適化された太陽光投資のための枠組み (AI 翻訳)

Salem Osman, Abdussalam

Zenodoプレプリント2026-05-15#エネルギー転換Origin: Global
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20204218
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/20204218
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、太陽光発電投資の事前評価のための包括的な分析枠組みを開発。1982年から2023年の間に太陽光パネル価格が99%低下し、市場主導の競争力へ移行したことを実証。金融制約(相対重要度85%)、技術的制約(75%)、規制の不確実性(70%)が依然として障壁であると指摘し、技術的・経済的指標を統合した意思決定枠組みを提案する。

English

This study develops a comprehensive analytical framework for ex-ante evaluation of solar energy investments, demonstrating a 99% reduction in solar PV module prices from 1982 to 2023, signaling market-driven competitiveness. It identifies financial constraints (85% relative importance), technical limitations (75%), and regulatory uncertainties (70%) as key barriers, and proposes a decision-analytical framework integrating technical and economic metrics.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本は2030年の再生可能エネルギー目標達成に向け太陽光発電の導入拡大を進めており、本論文の投資評価枠組みは、日本の政策立案者や事業者にとって、より効率的な太陽光投資の意思決定に役立つ知見を提供する。また、日本の高コスト構造や系統制約への適用可能性も示唆する。

In the global GX context

This paper offers a globally relevant framework for optimizing solar investments, addressing persistent barriers and providing insights for policymakers, investors, and system planners. It contributes to the global GX discourse by moving beyond grid parity to value-based investment decisions, applicable to both developed and emerging economies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a novel decision-analytical framework that integrates technical and economic metrics for solar investment evaluation, useful for further model development.

🏢実務担当者:Offers actionable insights for corporate sustainability teams and investors to optimize solar project valuation and risk assessment.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights key barriers and provides a framework for designing effective policies to accelerate solar integration.

📄 Abstract(原文)

Abstract : The global transition toward decarbonized energy systems has positioned solar photovoltaic (PV) technology as a critical component of sustainable electricity supply. This study develops a comprehensive analytical framework for the  ex-ante  evaluation of solar energy investments by critically assessing three dominant economic modeling paradigms: least-cost generation expansion models, integrated energy system models, and macroeconomic assessment tools. Empirical analysis demonstrates a 99.0% reduction in global solar PV module prices between 1982 and 2023, signifying a decisive transition from subsidy-dependent deployment to market-driven competitiveness. Nevertheless, persistent barriers—notably financial constraints (85% relative importance), technical limitations (75%), and regulatory uncertainties (70%)—continue to impede optimal solar integration. We propose a novel decision-analytical framework that integrates technical performance metrics with dynamic economic indicators, addressing gaps in conventional evaluation methodologies. Findings indicate that while solar energy exhibits compelling economic potential—with levelized costs as low as USD 20–50/MWh in high-insolation regions—its successful integration requires modeling approaches that reconcile theoretical rigor with real-world policy and market complexities. Global solar investment reached USD 220 billion in 2023, a 175% increase since 2010, with China representing 55% of total deployment. This research provides actionable insights for policymakers, investors, and system planners navigating the evolving renewable energy landscape.

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gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。