Path-dependent energy innovation under carbon pricing and subsidy policies: challenges for Europe’s net-zero transition
炭素価格と補助金政策下での経路依存的なエネルギーイノベーション：欧州のネットゼロ移行の課題 (AI 翻訳)
Bilal Çayır, Onur Yeni
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
2000～2020年の欧州17カ国のパネルデータを用いて、エネルギー価格、環境政策、技術革新の経路依存性がクリーン・ダーティなエネルギー特許出願に与える影響を分析。エネルギー価格上昇はクリーン技術の革新を促進するが、化石燃料技術の革新は蓄積された知識ストックに強く依存。EU ETSはクリーン・化石双方の特許増加と関連し、防御的革新を示唆。炭素価格単独では不十分で、補助金と展開政策を組み合わせた政策ミックスが必要。
English
This paper empirically examines how energy costs, environmental policy, and path dependency influence clean and dirty energy patenting across 17 European countries (2000–2020). Higher energy prices boost clean innovation, but dirty innovation persists due to accumulated fossil knowledge stocks and carbon lock-in. The EU ETS correlates with increased patenting in both clean and fossil technologies, suggesting defensive innovation. The authors argue that carbon pricing alone is insufficient; a complementary policy mix including targeted R&D subsidies and deployment policies is needed for a net-zero transition.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
この研究はEU ETSや炭素価格政策の限界を実証的に示しており、日本でも2023年度から始まったGXリーグや排出量取引制度の設計に示唆を与える。特に経路依存性によるカーボンロックインの強さを考慮すると、日本のGX政策でも価格シグナルと補助金の組み合わせが重要であることを示唆している。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on the limitations of carbon pricing alone in weakening fossil fuel innovation, highly relevant for global debates around the EU ETS, China’s ETS, and emerging carbon pricing mechanisms. It underscores the need for a policy mix combining pricing with targeted R&D support, aligning with ISSB, TCFD, and transition finance frameworks that emphasize enabling policies for decarbonization.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Empirically demonstrates path dependence in energy innovation, offering robust Poisson/NB results that challenge the effectiveness of carbon pricing without complementary policies.
🏢実務担当者:For corporate sustainability teams, highlights that carbon pricing alone may not shift R&D from fossil fuels; firms should align with policy support for zero-carbon technologies.
🏛政策担当者:Provides evidence that carbon pricing must be complemented by R&D subsidies and deployment policies to break fossil lock-in, informing the design of emissions trading systems and green industrial policy.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract This study empirically investigates how energy costs, environmental policy, and history of innovation (path dependency) influence energy innovation in Europe over the period 2000-2020. Using panel data for 17 European countries we analyze clean and dirty energy patenting behavior in relation to energy prices, energy taxes, carbon pricing mechanisms, and energy R&D subsidies. We estimate Poisson count data models, with robustness assessed using negative binomial specifications. The results indicate that higher energy prices are robustly associated with increased clean energy innovation, whereas energy costs do not suggest a significant effect on fossil-based innovation. Instead, dirty innovation is largely explained by accumulated fossil knowledge stocks, pointing to strong path dependence and persistent carbon lock-in. Moreover, the adoption of EU ETS is associated with higher patenting activity in both clean and fossil technologies, consistent with engaging in defensive innovation by extending existing fossil-based technological capabilities. Overall, the findings suggest that carbon pricing, while necessary, has historically been insufficient to weaken fossil innovation trajectories when path dependence is strong, leaving the energy transition constrained by carbon lock-in. Effective climate policy, therefore, requires a complementary mix in which EU-wide price signals are combined with tightly targeted public R&D subsidies for breakthrough zero-carbon technologies and deployment policies that accelerate learning and scale-up in clean niches.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-026-09683-5first seen 2026-05-14 22:28:40
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