gxceed
← 論文一覧に戻る

Scenario analysis of electric and hybrid mobility pathways for light-duty transport in Ecuador

エクアドルにおける軽量輸送の電気・ハイブリッドモビリティ経路のシナリオ分析 (AI 翻訳)

López, Mónica, Hidalgo, Daniel

Zenodoプレプリント2026-05-22#EV・輸送
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20336841
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/20336841
📄 PDF

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、エクアドルの軽量車両脱炭素化経路をOSeMOSYS/MUIOを用いて評価。BAU、国家電動化戦略（ENEM）、ハイブリッド（HEV）の3シナリオを比較し、ENEMシナリオが2035年までに1.60MtCO2e削減し、NDC条件付き目標の15%に貢献することを示した。長期的にはENEMが最大の排出削減とエネルギー需要低減を達成するが、HEVも移行技術として有効。

English

This study evaluates light-duty vehicle decarbonization pathways in Ecuador using OSeMOSYS/MUIO. It compares BAU, National Electromobility Strategy (ENEM), and hybrid (HEV) scenarios. ENEM reduces emissions by 1.60 MtCO2e by 2035, contributing 15% to the NDC conditional target. Over 2022-2050, ENEM achieves the highest cumulative energy demand reduction (12.14%), while HEV also provides a viable transition option.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

エクアドルを対象とした研究だが、電動化とハイブリッドの併用戦略は、日本の自動車メーカーが新興国市場での技術展開を検討する際の参考になる。また、水力と太陽光の統合計画は、日本の電力システム改革にも示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a concrete case study of electromobility pathways in a developing country with hydropower dominance. It demonstrates how scenario modeling can inform NDC implementation and transition finance, relevant for global investors and policymakers focusing on just energy transitions.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Useful for those studying transport decarbonization modeling in developing countries, particularly with OSeMOSYS.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for EV and HEV deployment strategies in markets with evolving charging infrastructure.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the role of electrification scenarios in meeting NDC targets and reducing fuel import dependence.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Ecuador’s transport sector is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions within the national energy sector, making light-duty vehicle decarbonization a relevant mitigation priority for the country’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2026–2035. This study evaluates alternative mobility transition pathways using OSeMOSYS through MUIO, focusing on the role of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in reducing fossil fuel consumption, transport emissions, energy demand, and fuel import dependence between 2022 and 2050.  Three scenarios are analyzed. The BAU scenario represents the baseline pathway under current trends, without additional electrification targets. The ENEM scenario follows Ecuador’s National Electromobility Strategy, assuming stronger BEV deployment in line with national electromobility targets, while also considering HEVs as a complementary technology. The HEV scenario explores a slower BEV deployment pathway, where hybrid vehicles play a stronger transition role in reducing gasoline consumption and direct CO₂ emissions under possible infrastructure, market, or electricity supply constraints.  The results show that both ENEM and HEV will reduce emissions compared with BAU by 2035. BAU reaches 28.08 MtCO₂e, while ENEM reaches 26.48 MtCO₂e, equivalent to a reduction of 1.60 MtCO₂e and a 15% contribution to the NDC conditional target. HEV also remains below BAU, reaching 27.41 MtCO₂e, with a reduction of 0.67 MtCO₂e and a 6% contribution to the NDC conditional target. Over the 2022–2050 period, ENEM reduces cumulative energy demand by 759.34 PJ, or 12.14%, while HEV reduces it by 383.97 PJ, or 6.14%, compared with BAU. The electricity supply results show that hydropower remains the backbone of clean generation, increasing from 88.7 PJ in 2022 to 123.9 PJ in 2050, while solar energy shows the strongest growth, reaching 78.9 PJ in ENEM, 72.5 PJ in HEV, and 70.6 PJ in BAU by 2050. Fuel import results indicate that fossil fuel dependence remains relevant, although transition scenarios reduce gasoline imports: by 2050, gasoline imports reach 327.8 PJ in BAU, compared with 260.9 PJ in ENEM and 299.9 PJ in HEV. Overall, ENEM provides the strongest long-term decarbonization pathway, while HEVs can serve as a complementary transition technology as Ecuador expands charging infrastructure, strengthens power system readiness, and advances toward sustainable mobility. 

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。

gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。