Estimating the progress of Pakistan in achieving the SDG7. Vector Autoregression (VAR)-VGETS Approach
パキスタンのSDG7達成進捗の推定：ベクトル自己回帰（VAR）-VGETSアプローチ (AI 翻訳)
Alemzero D, Haris M, Sidai G
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、パキスタンのSDG7（手頃でクリーンなエネルギー）達成進捗を評価し、2030年までの見通しを示す。2001～2021年のデータを用いてVAR、GETs、VECモデルを適用した結果、パキスタンは再生可能エネルギー目標で104%、クリーン調理ソリューションで28.5%遅れており、現状のままでは2030年までの達成は不可能と結論づける。長期的なGETs推定では有意な値が得られず、VECM分析で共和分関係が確認された。政策提言として、民間投資を促進する財政的手段の制度化と、排出権取引制度の導入を挙げている。
English
This study evaluates Pakistan's progress toward SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy) using VAR, GETs, and VEC models on 2001-2021 data. It finds Pakistan is 104% behind on renewable energy targets and 28.5% behind on clean cooking solutions, making it unlikely to achieve SDG 7 by 2030 under business-as-usual. Long-run GETs estimates are insignificant, while VECM confirms cointegration. Policy recommendations include fiscal instruments to attract private investment and emissions trading schemes.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
In the global GX context
This paper provides an empirical case study of SDG 7 progress in a developing country, Pakistan, offering insights into policy failures and the need for carbon pricing and private investment mechanisms. It contributes to the global understanding of energy transition challenges in emerging economies, though it does not directly address TCFD/ISSB frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:A useful case study on applying econometric models to SDG tracking in developing countries.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the urgency of policy intervention including carbon pricing and fiscal instruments for energy transition in Pakistan.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<title>Abstract</title> <p> The aim of this study is to determine the progress made by Pakistan towards SDG 7 and to provide insights on how Pakistan will achieve SDG 7 goals by 2030. We applied Asali [1], vector autoregression (VAR), general-to-specific (GETs) and vector error correction model (VEC) using data between 2001 and 2021. Pakistan is behind on meeting SDG 7 and would have fallen behind on meeting renewable energy targets by 104% by 2030 and on access to clean cooking solutions by 28.5% by 2030. The long-term estimations of GETs model do not derive any significant values, implying Pakistan’s inability to meet SDG7 in 2030. REO shows to be resilient to shocks as it continues to take a growth path, VECM analysis confirms the presence of cointegration, and Wald test confirms the Granger causality between the variables in Pakistan attaining its SDG7. The country lags on the four indicators and will not achieve them by 2030 under the business-as-usual approach. Pakistan needs to institutionalize fiscal instruments to attract private investment and implement emissions trading schemes where the proceeds can be used for green energy projects and discourage polluters from polluting the environment. This will influence the political discourse on Pakistan's progress towards SDG7. · <bold>JEL CODES:</bold> <bold>C32, C87:Q4: Q56:Q58</bold> </p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9165275/v1first seen 2026-05-14 21:21:47
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