Techno-Economic Evaluation for Renewable Deployment in Southern Chile: Expanding the Green Hydrogen Frontier
チリ南部における再生可能エネルギー導入の技術経済評価：グリーン水素フロンティアの拡大 (AI 翻訳)
Teresa Guarda, Silvio F. Durán Velásquez, Alejandro E. Córdova Arellano, Germán Herrera-Vidal, Ó. Coronado-Hernández, Gustavo Gatica, M. Pérez-Sánchez, J. Coronado-Hernández
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究はチリ南部マガジャネス地域の5つのプラントを対象に、グリーン水素生産の技術的・経済的 feasibility を評価。モンテカルロシミュレーションを用いた確率的経済分析により、規模拡大が経済性の主要因であることを示し、LCOHが7.1米ドルから3.4米ドル/kgH2に低下することを確認。小規模構成ではわずか23.88%のみが正のNPVを示し、スケールアップの必要性を強調。
English
This study assesses the techno-economic feasibility of green hydrogen production in southern Chile using a stochastic economic model with Monte Carlo simulations. It finds that production scale is the key factor affecting profitability, with LCOH decreasing from $7.1 to $3.4/kgH2 as capacity increases. Only 23.88% of small-scale configurations yield positive NPV, highlighting the need for scaling.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の水素戦略においてもコスト低減は最重要課題である。本研究で用いられた確率論的評価手法と規模の経済性分析は、国内のグリーン水素プロジェクトの事業性評価に応用可能であり、政策立案や投資判断に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper adds valuable empirical evidence on the cost dynamics of green hydrogen, particularly the critical role of scale in achieving viability. Its stochastic modeling approach offers a robust framework for assessing renewable hydrogen projects globally, relevant for ISSB-aligned climate finance and transition planning.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a detailed Monte Carlo-based techno-economic model for green hydrogen, useful for refining cost projections and understanding risk factors.
🏢実務担当者:Offers benchmarks for LCOH and break-even scale that can inform project feasibility assessments and investment decisions.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the policy implications of scale requirements for green hydrogen competitiveness, supporting targeted subsidies or infrastructure planning.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Chile stands out for its renewable energy resources and its commitment to developing green hydrogen. However, achieving cost parity with gray hydrogen remains an obstacle, mainly due to high capital costs and sensitivity to scale. This study assesses the technical and economic feasibility of green hydrogen production, using five different plants located in the Magallanes region in the south of the country as a reference. The model integrates a detailed framework of wind generation, PEM electrolysis, compression, and high-pressure storage subsystems, as well as a stochastic economic layer that combines the CAPEX, NPV, and LCOH assessments using Monte Carlo simulations. It also incorporates real-world capacity distributions and probabilistic fluctuations in systems. A sensitivity analysis confirms production scale as the main factor affecting profitability, with a break-even threshold of 0.5 MW. The results show that the LCOH decreases from 7.1 USD to 3.4 USD/kgH2 as capacity increases. The analysis reveals that only 23.88% of small-scale configurations yield positive NPV, underscoring the need for scaling to achieve economic viability.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.3390/app16073165first seen 2026-05-15 19:25:37
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