International ETS and Physical Climate Risks
国際排出権取引制度と物理的気候リスク (AI 翻訳)
Pengyu Chen, Zhongzhu Chu, Yuhao Zhao
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、京都議定書に基づく排出権取引制度（ETS）が物理的気候リスクに与える影響を、2000年から2023年のグローバルデータを用いて実証分析した。段階的差異分析により、ETSは特に急性リスクを低減し、緩和・適応・金融の経路を通じて効果を発揮する。ただし、炭素価格の高騰や市場不均衡が課題であり、政策設計に示唆を与える。
English
This study empirically examines the impact of Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) on physical climate risk using staggered difference-in-differences with global data (2000-2023). Results show ETS significantly reduces acute climate risks through mitigation, adaptation, and finance pathways, with spillover and threshold effects. High carbon prices and allowances can cause market imbalances, offering policy insights.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は自主的排出権取引制度（J-ETS）などを持つが、本知見はSSBJやカーボンプライシング設計の参考となる。特に政策のスピルオーバー効果や閾値特性は、日本での制度拡充や企業の気候リスク管理に示唆を提供する。
In the global GX context
This paper provides rigorous causal evidence on how carbon pricing reduces physical climate risk, relevant for global disclosure frameworks (TCFD, ISSB) and transition finance. The spillover and threshold findings inform optimal ETS design, especially for emerging markets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Offers a novel empirical framework linking ETS to physical risk with staggered DID, testing multiple mechanisms and heterogeneity.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights that ETS participation can reduce acute climate risk exposure, supporting corporate carbon pricing advocacy and risk management.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that ETS effectiveness depends on ideological alignment and market balance, guiding calibration of carbon prices and allowances.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The Emissions Trading System (ETS), modeled after the Kyoto Protocol, is widely recognized for its role in advancing the sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, this market‐based mechanism has been criticized from a Keynesian perspective, which highlights that investment inertia in technology and climate governance can impede effective climate risk management. To address this debate, this study constructs a novel conceptual framework integrating institutional theory and the resource‐based view. Employing a staggered difference‐in‐differences (DID) design with global data from 2000 to 2023, we empirically examine the complex relationship between ETS and physical climate risk. The results indicate that: First, the ETS, as a substantive climate governance tool driven by public pressure, significantly reduces physical climate risks, particularly acute climate risks. Second, the ETS governs climate risk primarily through three pathways—climate mitigation, adaptation, and finance—while also exhibiting spillover effects and threshold characteristics. Additionally, the effectiveness of the ETS is influenced by ideological and economic alignments, with notable variations among capitalist, non‐EU, and non‐OECD countries. Finally, high carbon prices, taxes, and allowances cause imbalances in the carbon market. This study not only provides a comprehensive explanation of the underlying mechanisms through which the ETS affects physical climate risk but also offers theoretical insights and empirical support for ETS optimization and the design of other climate policies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70212first seen 2026-05-15 17:27:50
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