A Spatially Integrated Techno-Economic Framework for Italy’s Carbon-Neutral Power Mix by 2050

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🔬研究者:This work offers a replicable framework integrating spatial and temporal analysis for renewable deployment and flexibility optimization.

🏢実務担当者:Insights into optimal renewable mix and flexibility configurations can inform system planning and investment decisions.

🏛政策担当者:The comparison of renewable-only and nuclear-inclusive pathways highlights trade-offs for long-term energy policy.

This thesis develops an integrated analytical framework to assess Italy’s transition toward a deeply decarbonized electricity system by 2050. The approach relies on three complementary analytical layers: GIS-based spatial screening, a PV/wind share-sweep analysis, and detailed hourly national energy-system simulations. The GIS analysis provides a high-resolution understanding of regional feasibility for solar and wind installations by mapping land-use constraints, protected areas, elevation limits, and settlement patterns. Importantly, this spatial layer is used exclusively for contextual screening rather than for computing national PV or wind potentials. Annual generation inputs for the share-sweep are instead derived from representative TRNSYS-based hourly profiles. Using these profiles, a parametric PV/wind share-sweep evaluates one thousand renewable configurations to illustrate how different mixes influence long-duration storage requirements. The analysis identifies a wind-dominant ratio (around 83% wind and 17% solar PV) as the configuration with the lowest residual-load imbalance, driven by the complementary seasonal and diurnal patterns of the two resources. Because Part I optimization is based on 2022 electricity demand, its results are not directly transferred to the 2050 scenarios, which instead follow PNIEC-aligned renewable capacities to ensure feasibility. Two national scenarios, Decor-2050 (renewable-only) and WNuclear-2050 (nuclear-inclusive), are simulated using the EnergyPLAN model to assess system operation, curtailment, balancing behaviour, and techno-economic performance. The analysis includes a structured evaluation of integrated flexibility configurations, combining hydrogen conversion and storage with controlled EV charging within a coordinated sector-coupling framework. Results show that hydrogen reconversion provides the primary structural reduction in surplus and deficit imbalances, while managed EV charging offers complementary short-term demand alignment with renewable availability. The combined flexibility configurations demonstrate enhanced balancing performance compared to individual mechanisms implemented in isolation. Across all evaluated dimensions, Decor-2050 and WNuclear-2050 exhibit distinct operational behaviours. Decor-2050 achieves very high renewable penetration but experiences stronger seasonal imbalances due to its PV-heavy structure. WNuclear-2050 moderates extreme surpluses through firm low-carbon generation but shows slightly higher curtailment pressure. Economic indicators confirm that both pathways are financially viable under a range of electricity-price assumptions, although system costs and profitability differ with their respective capacity mixes. Decor-2050 delivers around 545 TWh of RES electricity and reduces national CO2 emissions to approximately 20-25 Mt, while WNuclear-2050 brings emissions even lower by adding 64 TWh of firm nuclear production. Both pathways experience comparable annual mismatch volumes (nearly 250 TWh of surplus and deficit energy), confirming the importance of hydrogen storage and EV flexibility. Overall, this thesis shows that Italy can transition to a highly renewable electricity system that is technically feasible, regionally grounded, and supported by appropriate flexibility strategies. By integrating GIS screening, a share-sweep assessment, and hourly national simulation within a unified analytical framework, the work provides actionable insights for policymakers, regional planners, and investors shaping Italy’s long-term decarbonization strategy.

• openalex https://hdl.handle.net/11367/160199first seen 2026-05-15 16:41:26