Carbon regulation and competition in the European airline industry
欧州航空産業における炭素規制と競争 (AI 翻訳)
Ertian Chen, Lichao Chen, L. Nesheim
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、EU排出権取引制度（EU ETS）が欧州航空業界に与える影響を定量化するため、路線参入、便数、価格を内生的に決定する二段階競争モデルを推定。反実仮想シミュレーションの結果、炭素価格の影響は航空会社タイプや市場セグメント間で非対称であり、中距離市場で消費者余剰が最大90%減少する一方、短距離市場では正の純厚生効果が生じることが示された。航空会社の利益は8～45%減少するが、炭素税収とCO2回避の社会的価値が部分的に損失を相殺する。
English
This paper estimates a two-stage model of airline competition with endogenous route entry, flight frequencies, and pricing to quantify the impact of the EU ETS on the European airline industry. Counterfactual simulations reveal highly asymmetric impacts: consumer surplus declines up to 25% overall, with medium-haul markets bearing the brunt (up to 90%), while short-haul markets experience net welfare gains. Airline profits fall 8-45%, partially offset by carbon tax revenue ($0.9-3.1 billion) and social value of avoided CO2 ($0.5-1.4 billion).
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもGXリーグや炭素価格の導入が議論される中、欧州航空業界での実証結果は、炭素規制が競争構造や消費者厚生に与える影響を理解する上で重要な示唆を与える。特に短距離・中距離市場での非対称効果は、日本国内線・国際線への政策応用を考える際の参考となる。
In the global GX context
As the EU ETS expands to aviation, this study provides crucial empirical evidence on how carbon pricing reshapes competition and welfare in a transport sector. The findings on asymmetric impacts across route lengths and the trade-off between consumer surplus and environmental benefits are directly relevant for global policymakers designing carbon pricing mechanisms in other regions, including the US and Asia.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The two-stage model with endogenous route entry and counterfactual simulations offers a methodological framework for analyzing carbon policy impacts in network industries.
🏢実務担当者:Airlines and investors can use the results to anticipate competitive dynamics and profit shifts under different carbon pricing scenarios.
🏛政策担当者:The welfare analysis highlights the need for compensatory measures for medium-haul markets and the overall efficiency of carbon pricing in aviation.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The European Union Emissions Trading System is set to substantially increase the effective carbon price faced by airlines. To quantify the impact of this carbon regulation on the European airline industry, we estimate a two-stage model of airline competition with endogenous route entry, flight frequencies, and pricing using European data on market shares and prices. Counterfactual simulations reveal that the impacts of carbon pricing are highly asymmetric across carrier types and market segments. Consumer surplus declines by up to 25% overall, with medium-haul markets bearing the brunt at up to 90%, while short-haul markets experience positive net welfare gains (including carbon revenue and the social value of avoided emissions) as airlines reallocate capacity toward shorter routes. We find that airline profits decline by 8-45% across scenarios, while carbon tax revenue of $0.9-3.1 billion and a social value of avoided CO2 emissions of $0.5-1.4 billion partially offset the welfare losses. We also show that a hypothetical Wizz Air-Ryanair merger primarily benefits firm profits through network expansion synergies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.47004/wp.cem.2026.0426first seen 2026-05-05 23:00:25
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。