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Spatiotemporal Evolution of Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions and Regional Low-Carbon Sustainable Development in China

中国におけるエネルギー消費炭素排出の時空間的進化と地域的低炭素持続可能な発展 (AI 翻訳)

Xiaodong Zhang, Zidong Wu

Sustainability📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-07-13#炭素会計Origin: CN対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.3390/su18147157
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/su18147157

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国の2005～2020年の都市別パネルデータを用いて、エネルギー消費に伴う炭素排出の時空間的進化を分析。総排出量は増加傾向だが伸びは鈍化し、高排出地域が東部沿岸から北部・西部へ拡大。一人当たり排出量は地域間で格差拡大、排出強度は低下。都市建設用地拡大や経済成長が排出増加要因である一方、住宅規模や国内企業発展は抑制要因。地域資源賦存や産業構造が排出パターンを形成し、低炭素政策の効果を示唆。

English

Using prefecture-level panel data from 2005 to 2020, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China. Total emissions are rising but at a slowing pace, with high-emission zones shifting from the eastern coast to the north and west. Per capita emissions show widening regional disparities, while emission intensity continues to decline. Urban construction land expansion and economic growth are positive drivers, while commercial housing scale and domestic enterprises are negative drivers. The findings highlight the impact of resource endowments, industrial structure, and low-carbon policies.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

本論文は中国の都市別データを用いた炭素排出の時空間分析であり、日本の地域別脱炭素政策の策定に参考となる手法を提供する。特に、SSBJが求める地域単位での排出開示や、日本の都道府県別排出特性の分析に応用可能な知見を含む。日本企業にとっては、中国の排出動向と政策効果の理解がサプライチェーン対応に資する。

In the global GX context

This paper offers a rigorous empirical analysis of China's carbon emission dynamics at a granular subnational level, providing insights relevant to global climate mitigation. It demonstrates how spatial analysis can inform region-specific abatement strategies, a methodology transferable to other countries. The findings on emission drivers and policy effectiveness are valuable for international stakeholders monitoring China's decarbonization progress.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of China's energy carbon emissions using prefecture-level data, identifying key drivers and spatial shifts, serving as a reference for similar studies.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights regional emission patterns and policy effectiveness, informing location-based emission reduction strategies for companies operating in China.

🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the need for region-specific carbon abatement policies and demonstrates the impact of industrial relocation on emission spatial distribution.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Against the backdrop of optimizing national energy mix and advancing industrial low-carbon transformation to achieve sustainable socioeconomic development, this study adopts prefecture-level panel data covering 2005–2020 to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution law of carbon emissions generated by urban energy consumption. We systematically characterize emission disparities from three dimensions: total carbon output, per capita carbon emissions, and carbon emission intensity, and further adopt regression analysis to quantitatively identify core socioeconomic and industrial drivers behind energy-related carbon flows. The results indicate that China’s total urban energy carbon emissions kept rising over the research window with decelerating growth momentum. Driven by cross-regional industrial transfer and uneven energy resource endowments, high-emission zones gradually spread from eastern coastal agglomerations to northern and western inland territories, forming a stable spatial layout of high emissions in the east and north, and low emissions in the west and south. Per capita carbon emissions present striking regional differentiation: northwest resource-abundant provinces become concentrated high-value clusters, while populous southeast regions maintain relatively low levels, with inter-regional per capita emission gaps continuously widening. Nationwide carbon emission intensity maintained a persistent downward trend; high-intensity zones shrank markedly while low-carbon areas expanded continuously, and inter-regional efficiency gradients gradually converged, reflecting tangible achievements in nationwide energy conservation and low-carbon industrial transition. Overall, the gravity center of energy carbon emissions shifted northwestward, with Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Ningxia evolving into major high-emission hotspots relying on fossil energy exploitation and heavy industrial layout. Statistical regression associations suggest that urban construction land expansion, economic expansion, foreign capital agglomeration, and industrial energy carbon outputs are positively correlated with urban carbon emissions; by contrast, commercial housing scale and domestic enterprise development present significant negative correlational links with emission levels. The differentiated spatiotemporal carbon landscape arises from the joint interplay of regional resource endowment, coal-dominated energy structure, industrial layout restructuring, and tiered low-carbon policy implementation, demonstrating China’s overall shift from high-carbon extensive industrial growth toward energy-efficient, low-carbon intensive sustainable development. This research delivers empirical evidence for formulating zoned carbon abatement schemes, optimizing regional energy allocation and industrial layouts, and advancing long-term low-carbon sustainable development to fulfill China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets.

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