Bridging climate science and adaptation: a perspective on the construction of National Climate Scenarios
気候科学と適応の架け橋：国家気候シナリオ構築に関する視点 (AI 翻訳)
Karin van der Wiel
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
国家気候シナリオは、気候変動適応計画において重要な役割を果たす。本稿は10カ国の事例を比較し、科学的信頼性と社会的関連性のバランス、不確実性の扱い、極端現象の予測などの課題を指摘する。欧州でのネットワーク構築の可能性も提案する。
English
This perspective compares national climate scenarios from ten countries, highlighting challenges in balancing scientific credibility and societal relevance, representing uncertainty, and addressing extreme events. It calls for interdisciplinary collaboration and proposes a European network to enhance usability.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも気象庁などが気候シナリオを提供している。本稿の比較分析は、日本のシナリオの改善や国際協調に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This comparative review of national climate scenarios from ten countries reveals common challenges highly relevant for the global climate services community, especially as adaptation demands intensify.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive overview of current practices and gaps in national climate scenarios, useful for climate services and adaptation research.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers involved in adaptation planning can learn from international best practices and the identified challenges to improve national scenarios.
📄 Abstract（原文）
As weather and climate hazards intensify due to anthropogenic climate change, the demand for authoritative, science-based, decision-relevant information on future climate risks has never been greater. National Climate Scenarios have emerged in many countries as an central pathway for translating advances in physical climate science into usable information on future weather and climate risks for adaptation planning, risk management, and policy.Here, we will take a conceptual and forward-looking perspective on the role and design of National Climate Scenarios in assessing future weather and climate hazards. Drawing on a comparative review of National Climate Scenarios from ten countries, I outline current practices at the science–policy interface and discuss how these national climate services navigate the tension between scientific credibility, uncertainty, and societal relevance. While the scenario products increasingly incorporate sophisticated climate model information, gaps remain between what users request (particularly regarding extremes and spatial detail) and what the climate science community can robustly deliver.I highlight four challenges that are highly relevant for the future development of National Climate Scenarios: (i) the co-development of credible and usable products with diverse user communities; (ii) the representation and communication of uncertainty; (iii) the integration of multiple lines of evidence across models, scales, and methods; and (iv) the treatment of extreme events and extreme climate outcomes (low likelihood, high impact). Addressing these challenges requires both continued disciplinary advances in physical climate science, including the modelling and attribution of (unprecedented or compound) weather and climate extremes as well as stronger interdisciplinary collaboration with social sciences, impact modelling, and climate services research.On a connected European continent, there is a clear opportunity to build a European network connecting the National Climate Scenario-producers, scientists and users, to strengthen scientific excellence, improve efficiency and enhance usability of climate information particularly at transnational levels. This contribution aims to set the stage for a discussion on what harmonised, but nation-specific, Climate Scenarios might look like.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2026-172first seen 2026-07-13 05:01:47
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