Spatiotemporal supply-demand matching in residential building rooftop photovoltaics (PV) under climate change: a cross-climate zone assessment
気候変動下における住宅屋根置き太陽光発電の時空間需給マッチング：横断気候ゾーン評価 (AI 翻訳)
Zhuocheng Duan, Shady Attia, Hossein Omrany, Ruidong Chang, Jian Zuo
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、気候変動が住宅屋根置き太陽光発電（PV）と建物エネルギー需要の時空間的なマッチングに与える影響を、27都市・8気候ゾーンにわたり評価した。年間・月次・日次スケールでの分析に加え、極端イベント評価も行い、気候変動シナリオ下での自己消費率（SCR）と自給率（SSR）の変化を明らかにした。特に暑熱地域では需要増大によりSSRが低下し、寒冷地域では冬季のPV発電不足が継続するなど、地域特有の課題が浮き彫りとなった。
English
This study assesses the spatiotemporal matching between rooftop PV generation and building energy demand under climate change across 27 cities in 8 climate zones. Using annual, monthly, daily, and extreme-event scales, it reveals that in hot regions, energy demand rises 33.6-38.5% while PV output changes little, reducing self-sufficiency. Cold regions see demand reduction but remain constrained by winter generation. Heterogeneous impacts challenge uniform renewable targets.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の住宅部門の脱炭素化において、屋根置きPVの導入拡大が進んでいるが、気候変動による需要と発電のミスマッチが課題となる可能性を示唆する。特に、日本の多様な気候区分（寒冷地から温暖地）におけるゾーン別の対策立案に有用な知見を提供する。また、SSBJなど気候関連開示におけるシナリオ分析の高度化にも寄与しうる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a cross-climate-zone analysis of PV-demand matching under climate change, relevant for global building decarbonization. For regions like Japan that face both hot and cold climates, it underscores the need for climate-specific renewable policies and supplementary measures. The methodology integrating extreme events is valuable for climate scenario analysis under TCFD/ISSB frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a multi-scale temporal analysis framework for PV-demand matching across climate zones, useful for building energy modelers.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights that rooftop PV alone may not ensure energy self-sufficiency under climate change; demand-side measures and backup sources are needed.
🏛政策担当者:Informs that uniform renewable energy targets may be inadequate; region-specific strategies are essential.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The building sector accounts for over one-third of global energy use and emissions, making on-site renewable generation critical for climate neutrality. Rooftop photovoltaics (PV) can reduce reliance on fossil fuels, yet climate change alters both building energy demand and PV output, creating poorly understood spatiotemporal mismatches. To bridge this gap, this study employed a multi-scale temporal analysis across 27 cities representing all ASHRAE climate zones, integrating extreme event assessment with traditional annual metrics to reveal unique PV-demand matching dynamics. A single-storey residential building with 10.08 kW rooftop PV was simulated via Ladybug tools (EnergyPlus engine) in Rhino under baseline, SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios (2050, 2080) to analyze self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) and self-consumption ratio (SCR) at annual, monthly and daily scales. Under SSP585_2080, extreme hot regions (Zone 0) face compound vulnerabilities: energy demand rises 33.6–38.5% while PV output changes marginally (−2.5% to 4.0%), reducing SSR from 48.2–50.9% (baseline) to 46.5–49.0%, despite SCR increases to 62.1–76.3%. Cool and cold regions in Zones 5–6 benefit from 11.3–19.5% demand reductions (SSP585_2080) but remain limited by winter generation, with SSR constrained at 24.0–35.6% under the same scenario. Monthly analysis exposes seasonal asymmetries with high-latitude (Zones 6–8) winter SSR typically below 15% despite warming. Most critically, extreme-event analysis exposed up to fourfold increases in energy deficits during extreme heat events in tropical zones and confirmed the expected zero PV generation during polar nights, a fundamental limitation that persists despite warming and that annual metrics consistently obscure. Sensitivity analysis examining building envelope performance variations and PV system capacity changes confirmed climate-driven performance patterns. These findings demonstrate heterogeneous climate change impacts that fundamentally challenge universal renewable energy targets, necessitating coordinated strategies combining demand-side interventions, climate-specific renovation and supplementary energy sources to address inherent solar limitations. Such insights provide essential guidance for renewable energy policy development and urban energy planning.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.128210first seen 2026-07-13 04:53:52
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