From Trade Adjustment to Industrial Energy Efficiency Transformation: A Simulation of Policy Portfolios for China in Response to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
貿易調整から産業のエネルギー効率転換へ：EU炭素国境調整メカニズムに対する中国の政策ポートフォリオのシミュレーション (AI 翻訳)
Huanrui Ma, Sheng Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
EUの炭素国境調整メカニズム（CBAM）が2026年に全面施行される中、中国は輸出コスト上昇などの課題に直面している。本研究は一般均衡（CGE）モデルと構造分解分析に基づき、炭素ガバナンス、貿易協力、貿易政策、産業政策からなる政策ポートフォリオの複合効果をシミュレーションした。結果、炭素価格と貿易協力のみでは経済損失が大きく、産業政策を加えることで排出削減と経済成長の両立が可能になることを示した。
English
As the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) fully takes effect in 2026, China faces rising export costs and industrial competitiveness challenges. This study uses a CGE model and structural decomposition analysis to simulate a portfolio of policies including carbon governance, trade cooperation, trade policy, and industrial policy. Findings show that relying solely on carbon pricing and trade cooperation leads to significant economic losses, while adding industrial policies for technological upgrading achieves a synergistic effect of emission reduction and economic growth.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本もEU CBAMの影響を受ける輸出大国であり、中国の政策シミュレーション結果は、炭素価格のみならず産業政策との組み合わせが重要であることを示唆する。日本企業にとっては、CBAM対応のための政策設計や投資判断に参考となる。
In the global GX context
This simulation for China, a major trading partner of the EU, demonstrates that a coordinated policy portfolio including industrial policy is key to mitigating the economic impact of CBAM while advancing decarbonization. The findings offer valuable lessons for other countries, including Japan, that are facing similar challenges from the EU's carbon border adjustment.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous simulation of policy mixes using CGE and decomposition analysis, relevant for climate policy and trade scholars.
🏢実務担当者:Chinese exporting firms can anticipate policy scenarios that may affect their competitiveness and carbon costs.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence for designing a domestic policy response to CBAM that balances emission reductions and economic growth.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has been fully in force since 2026. As a major trading partner and carbon emitter, China faces multiple challenges, including rising export costs and the reshaping of industrial competitiveness. This study constructs a portfolio of policy measures encompassing carbon governance, international trade cooperation, trade policy, and industrial policy. A multi-scenario simulation analysis based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and structural decomposition analysis is employed to assess and compare their combined effects. The findings reveal that: (1) Sole reliance on carbon pricing and trade cooperation achieves certain emission reductions but leads to significant economic losses; (2) Adding trade policies aimed at export structure optimization can achieve certain improvements, but the overall positive effects are limited; (3) In contrast, supplementing with industrial policies that promote technological and industrial upgrading achieves a synergistic “emission reduction–economic growth” outcome from both the supply and consumption sides. These findings underscore the potential of a coordinated policy portfolio that incorporates industrial policy to facilitate China’s navigation of the EU CBAM while advancing its low-carbon transition.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1515/econ-2025-0215first seen 2026-07-13 06:36:32
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