Decision-making under model misspecification: an application to climate policy
モデルの誤特定下での意思決定：気候政策への応用 (AI 翻訳)
Jacopo Ghirri, Mássimo Marinacci, Loïc Berger, Massimo Tavoni
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、気候変動モデルが本質的に不完全であることを認識し、その誤特定（どのモデルも適切でない可能性）を考慮した意思決定枠組みを提案する。IPCCシナリオのエミュレーターを用いた分析により、誤特定を考慮すると、より野心的な気候目標（厳格な炭素予算、オーバーシュートの抑制）が合理的となることを示す。深い不確実性下での予防的で頑健な政策設計の重要性を強調する。
English
This paper applies recent decision theory to address model misspecification in climate policy. Using emulators of IPCC scenarios, it shows that accounting for model misspecification leads to more ambitious climate goals, including stricter carbon budgets and reduced reliance on overshoot. The findings provide a foundation for robust decision-making under deep uncertainty.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の気候政策においても、モデルの限界を認識した頑健な意思決定が重要である。本論文の枠組みは、不確実性下での予防的な炭素予算設定に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper speaks directly to the debate on how to set emissions targets under uncertainty, relevant to IPCC processes and national climate strategies. It provides rigorous justification for precautionary climate action when models are misspecified.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful for climate policy researchers interested in decision-making under deep uncertainty and the implications of model misspecification.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note that explicit consideration of model misspecification supports more ambitious climate targets, reinforcing the case for precautionary action.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract While models used to evaluate climate change are inherently simplified, and thus imperfect, representations of reality, they remain indispensable tools for quantifying policy impacts and guiding decision-making. How can we leverage these models while accounting for their potential misspecification -the possibility that none of the existing models is adequate? This paper addresses this question by applying recent advances in decision theory to analyze how concerns about model misspecification influence key climate strategies, including the stringency of emissions targets and the extent of climate overshoot. Using a decision-theoretic framework applied to emulators of IPCC-assessed scenarios, we quantify the trade-offs between mitigation costs and climate-induced economic damages. We show that when decision-makers explicitly account for the possibility of model misspecification, they rationally adopt more ambitious climate goals, characterized by stricter carbon budgets and reduced reliance on emissions overshoot. These results underscore the importance of integrating model misspecification concerns into climate policy design, providing a rigorous foundation for precautionary and robust decision-making under deep uncertainty.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s10203-026-00579-4first seen 2026-07-04 04:40:26
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