Storage Adequacy and LNG Transition Speed in Europe After the 2022 Gas Crisis

2022年ガス危機後の欧州における貯蔵量の適切性とLNG移行速度 (AI 翻訳)

Nagwa Amin Abdelkawy, Abdullah Sultan Al Shammre, Hazem Alshaikhmubarak, Taiba Sulaiman Al Fawzan, Saleh A. Aljamaan

Energies📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-06-08#エネルギー転換Origin: EU経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: power

DOI: 10.3390/en19122748

原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/en19122748

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

2022年のロシアパイプラインガス停止後、欧州諸国はLNGシフトの速度に大きな差が出た。本研究は8カ国の2015～2024年データを用い、LNG輸入比率を従属変数とするパネル分析を実施。貯蔵量が少ない国ほどLNG依存を強めたことを発見し、再生可能エネルギーの普及も有意な正の要因であることを示した。

English

After the 2022 disruption of Russian pipeline gas, European countries shifted to LNG at different speeds. This study uses a panel of eight major importers over 2015-2024, modeling LNG share as the dependent variable. It finds that countries with lower storage reserves increased LNG dependence more strongly, and renewable penetration is a positive predictor.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本はLNG依存度が高く、エネルギー安全保障の観点から本知見は重要。欧州の経験は、日本のガス貯蔵戦略やLNG調達リスク管理に示唆を与える。また、再生可能エネルギー普及がLNGシフトを促す結果は、日本のGX政策における再エネ推進の根拠となる。

In the global GX context

This paper offers causal evidence on how gas storage levels affect LNG import dependency after a supply shock, relevant for global energy transition debates. It highlights the role of renewables in enabling fuel switching, with implications for TCFD/ISSB-related risk disclosures and transition planning for gas-dependent economies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Empirical evidence on the storage-LNG nexus using a novel reverse-modeling approach, robust to multiple specifications.

🏢実務担当者:Insights for gas procurement strategy: countries with lower storage should diversify LNG sources or invest in storage infrastructure.

🏛政策担当者:Policy implications for energy security: storage adequacy can mitigate rapid LNG dependency, and renewables support transition.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Following the 2022 disruption of Russian pipeline gas, European countries shifted toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) at markedly different speeds; yet, the drivers of this variation remain poorly understood. This study asks what explains these differences. Using a balanced panel of eight major European gas importers over 2015–2024 (80 observations), the study models the share of LNG in total gas imports as the dependent variable, reversing the conventional approach that treats LNG as an explanatory variable for gas prices. The interaction between the post-2022 structural break and storage fill levels is negative and statistically significant (β = −0.006, p = 0.019 clustered; p = 0.002 Driscoll-Kraay), suggesting that countries with lower storage reserves tended to increase their LNG dependence more strongly. This result is robust across seven of eight specifications and survives time-trend controls and leave-one-country-out analysis. Marginal effects reveal that the storage–LNG relationship was absent before the shock and emerged only after the disruption. Renewable energy penetration emerges as a significant positive predictor.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

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