A stock-based framework for monitoring fossil persistence and renewable expansion in global power systems
電力システムにおける化石燃料の持続と再生可能エネルギーの拡大を監視するためのストックベースのフレームワーク (AI 翻訳)
Hairong Wang, Chengyi Hong
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、世界の電力システムにおける再生可能エネルギーの容量追加と化石燃料資産の持続性を区別するストックベースの監視フレームワークを提案する。2010～2026年のグローバルデータを用いた分析により、再生可能エネルギーの導入が進む地域でも化石燃料資産の縮小が伴わないケースが多いことを実証し、容量追加のみでは移行進捗の不十分な指標であることを示した。
English
This paper proposes a stock-based monitoring framework to distinguish between renewable capacity additions and fossil asset persistence in global power systems. Using global asset-level data from 2010-2026, it demonstrates that even regions with high renewable deployment often do not reduce their fossil asset base, showing that capacity additions alone are insufficient for tracking transition progress.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX実践では、再エネ導入量の増加のみを評価する傾向があるが、本フレームワークは火力発電の稼働状況も同時に監視する必要性を示唆する。SSBJや有報での移行計画開示において、資産ベースの実質的な変化を報告する際の参考となる。
In the global GX context
Globally, this framework provides an auditable method for monitoring the power sector transition, addressing the gap between renewable deployment targets and actual fossil asset retirement. It is relevant for TCFD/ISSB-aligned disclosures that require reporting on transition plans and asset-level decarbonization progress.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:A data-driven method to distinguish between capacity additions and asset displacement, useful for transition monitoring research.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a framework for companies to assess whether their renewable investments are truly displacing fossil assets.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for policies that ensure renewable growth leads to fossil retirements, not just additions.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Rapid renewable capacity additions are widely interpreted as evidence of power-sector decarbonization, yet observable renewable growth frequently coexists with fossil persistence. For climate mitigation governance, transition monitoring must distinguish between capacity additions and physical asset displacement. Using unit-level asset data from the Global Integrated Power Tracker (2010–2026), we develop an auditable, stock-based monitoring framework for characterizing the operating-stock dimension of the global power transition. By explicitly separating realized changes in operating assets from forward-looking pipeline orientation, we show that these dimensions often diverge. Although global development pipelines are broadly renewable-tilted (median renewable pipeline share = 0.828), realized stock reallocation remains sharply polarized across subregions. Fossil persistence remains widespread even under substantial renewable expansion: among subregions with net positive stock reallocation, 12 of 14 remain expansion-led, and among the highest-ranking subregions on this stock-based measure, 80% exhibit renewable additions layered onto a non-contracting fossil asset base. These findings show that tracking renewable additions alone is insufficient for monitoring stock-level transition progress. The framework is intended to diagnose structural change in the operating asset base rather than generation displacement or emissions reduction directly. Credible climate mitigation governance therefore requires a diagnostic approach that separately tracks renewable build-out, fossil operating-stock persistence, and pipeline orientation, while strengthening retirement transparency as a core component of phase-out monitoring.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s40974-026-00425-8first seen 2026-07-02 05:02:34
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。