Climate and sovereign default risk
気候とソブリン債務不履行リスク (AI 翻訳)
Lukas Balzer, Alena Miftakhova
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、気候変動リスクがソブリン債務不履行リスクに与える影響を理論モデルで分析。慢性的な気候リスクは、政府のリスク回避行動を通じて債務不履行の誘因を低減し、結果として国債価格を上昇させる可能性があることを示す。急性の災害リスクは国債価格を押し下げるが、慢性的リスクは予防的チャネルを通じて逆効果をもたらす。
English
This paper analyzes the impact of climate risk on sovereign default risk using an endogenous default model. It shows that chronic physical climate risk can reduce default incentives by increasing the value governments place on continued market access as insurance against future shocks, thereby potentially raising sovereign bond prices. Acute disasters still depress prices, but long-term risk operates through a precautionary channel.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は世界最大級の政府債務を抱え、台風・洪水などの気候災害リスクに直面する。本論文は、気候リスクが国債利回りに与える影響を理論的に示し、日本の財政政策・国債管理に示唆を与える。特に、慢性リスクが債務持続可能性に与える予防的効果は、日本のESG投資家や債務管理者にとって重要な知見。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global climate finance literature by revealing that chronic climate risk can reduce sovereign default risk through a precautionary channel, challenging the conventional wisdom that climate risk always raises borrowing costs. It is relevant for transition finance frameworks and sovereign credit rating methodologies under ISSB and TCFD-aligned disclosures.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Introduces a precautionary channel linking chronic climate risk to lower default risk, offering a theoretical basis for empirical work on sovereign bond pricing and climate vulnerability.
🏢実務担当者:Sovereign bond investors and rating agencies should consider that long-term climate risk may reduce default risk for risk-averse governments, affecting portfolio allocation and credit assessments.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights that climate adaptation spending can lower default risk by maintaining market access, supporting the case for investment in climate resilience.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Does climate risk necessarily raise sovereign default risk? While a growing literature documents adverse effects from realized disasters, the implications of long-term (chronic) climate risk remain unclear. Using an endogenous default model with climate shocks, we isolate chronic physical risk from acute disaster realizations. We show that higher climate risk can increase sovereign bond prices by reducing default incentives. Risk-averse governments value continued market access as insurance against future shocks, strengthening repayment motives. While acute disasters still depress prices on impact, chronic risk can operate through a precautionary channel.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113078first seen 2026-07-02 05:08:46
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