Rising GHG emissions in Brazil: unpacking regional trends from 2000 to 2023 and the urgent call for climate action
ブラジルにおける温室効果ガス排出量の増加：2000年から2023年の地域別傾向と気候行動への緊急の呼びかけ (AI 翻訳)
Lívia Capanema da Paz Nascimento, Marcelo Vieira-Filho
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、ブラジルの地域別・セクター別の温室効果ガス排出量のトレンドを2000年から2023年まで分析。マン・ケンドール検定とセンの勾配を用い、エネルギー部門が最も増加、アマゾン地域の土地利用変化が顕著であることを示した。ARIMAモデルで非定常性を確認し、BAUシナリオでは2035年の排出量がNDC目標を大きく上回ると予測。ブラジルにはより強力な気候政策が必要であると結論づけている。
English
This study analyzes gross GHG emissions trends across Brazilian states and regions from 2000 to 2023 using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope methods. It finds that only one state reduced emissions, while the energy sector showed the largest increase. ARIMA modelling reveals non-stationary dynamics in deforestation-prone regions. The BAU scenario projects 1.58 GtCO2-eq in 2035, far above NDC targets, highlighting the need for stronger climate policies in Brazil.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文はブラジルを対象としているが、地域別・セクター別の詳細な排出動向分析は、日本の国内排出削減戦略やSSBJに基づく開示の参考となる。特に土地利用変化とエネルギー部門の寄与は、日本の森林吸収源対策やエネルギー転換政策への示唆を含む。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a detailed regional and sectoral emissions trend analysis for Brazil, a major developing-country emitter. It offers insights for global climate policy — the gap between BAU and NDC targets is a common challenge. The use of open SEEG data and statistical methods is replicable for other countries, including in the context of TCFD/ISSB reporting on emissions trajectories.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a detailed trend analysis of Brazilian state-level GHG emissions using Mann-Kendall and ARIMA, useful for researchers studying regional emission dynamics and NDC compliance.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams in Brazil or Latin America can use the sectoral (energy, land use) breakdown to identify high-emission sectors for value chain analysis and carbon reduction planning.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the insufficient current NDC trajectory for Brazil, urging stronger climate policies and enforcement, especially in land use and energy sectors.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Brazil ranks among the highest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG) globally, which emphasizes the relevance of its contribution to the Paris Agreement goals. This study analyzes trends in gross GHG emissions across Brazil from 2000 to 2023, aggregated by region and economic sector, to assess the country’s performance regarding emissions over recent decades. The historical emissions data, expressed in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 -eq), were sourced from the System for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions (SEEG), an initiative created by a Brazilian NGO. Data analysis was conducted using R (version 4.4.1) and RStudio, focusing on the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope methods applied to the 27 Brazilian states. Our findings indicate that only 1 state demonstrated a reduction throughout 2000 to 2023; 44% of the states exhibited positive trends that were statistically significant ( p < 0.05). At the national level, the energy sector accounted for the most substantial increase in emissions, averaging 6.94 MtCO 2 -eq per year. Notably, Amazonas state, situated entirely within the Amazon biome, reported the highest state-level trend, primarily driven by emissions from land use change and forests , amounting to 3.14 MtCO 2 -eq per year. Furthermore, 60% of the states surpassed the global per capita emissions average, which equals 6.56 tCO 2 -eq/year. Complementary time-series modelling using ARIMA identified non-stationary dynamics in the Center-West and Southeast, quantifying the high forecast uncertainty in deforestation-prone regions compared to the stability of the South. The aggregated national BAU scenario projects total emissions of 1.58 GtCO 2 -eq in 2035 for the most optimistic boundary, which remains significantly above the mitigation levels required by the NDC, suggesting that the current trajectory is insufficient to meet the proposed commitments. These results suggest the urgent need for more robust climate action strategies for Brazil to align with the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-026-10336-yfirst seen 2026-07-13 05:11:00
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