The Impossible Triangle of Carbon-Market Sustainability: Trade-Offs Among Price Stability, Market Liquidity, and Emission Abatement
炭素市場の持続可能性における不可能な三角形：価格安定性、市場流動性、排出削減の間のトレードオフ (AI 翻訳)
Ruixuan Yao, Jiajie Xia, Xilan Xu, Yue Liu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、炭素市場において価格安定性、市場流動性、排出削減の厳格性という三つの目標は同時に達成できないという「持続可能性トリレンマ」を提案する。中国全国火力発電排出権取引制度の2021～2025年の日次データを用いて分析した結果、流動性は向上したが価格安定性は低下し、価格は実需ではなく政策期待に左右されることを示した。炭素市場設計は理想を追求するのではなく、政策優先順位に応じてトレードオフを管理すべきである。
English
This paper proposes a sustainability trilemma for carbon markets, arguing that price stability, market liquidity, and abatement rigidity cannot be achieved simultaneously. Using daily data from China's national thermal-power ETS (2021-2025), it finds that while liquidity improved, price stability weakened, and prices were driven more by policy expectations than by actual emission scarcity. The authors conclude that market design should manage trade-offs rather than pursue an unattainable optimum.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は2026年度からの排出量取引制度本格稼働を控え、市場設計の課題に直面している。本論文のトリレンマ概念は、日本の炭素市場が価格安定性、流動性、削減実効性のバランスをどう取るべきかについて重要な示唆を提供する。
In the global GX context
With many jurisdictions (EU, China, UK) operating emissions trading systems, this paper's formalization of the trilemma provides a generalizable framework for evaluating market design choices. It highlights that trade-offs are inherent, and policy priorities must guide design. The empirical evidence from China's evolving ETS offers lessons for both mature and emerging markets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful as a formal model of carbon market trade-offs, testable with other ETS data.
🏢実務担当者:Insights on how market liquidity and price volatility affect compliance strategies and allowance procurement.
🏛政策担当者:Directly informs ETS design choices: prioritize either price stability, liquidity, or abatement rigidity based on policy goals.
📄 Abstract（原文）
A carbon market is often expected to deliver a stable allowance price, continuous market liquidity and a rigidly binding abatement trajectory, yet these objectives may not be jointly attainable. This paper proposes a sustainability trilemma of carbon markets, arguing that at most two of price stability, market liquidity and abatement rigidity can be achieved simultaneously. We formalise this trade-off in a simple equilibrium framework and examine it using daily price and volume data from China’s national thermal-power emissions trading scheme from 2021 to 2025, together with energy-sector fundamentals proxied by thermal-power generation and power-sector coal consumption. The evidence shows that market liquidity improved substantially over the sample period, while price stability weakened markedly: median daily trading volume rose from near-dormant levels in 2022 to close to one million allowances in 2025, whereas the intra-year price range expanded sharply. Meanwhile, allowance-price changes remained weakly correlated with coal-consumption changes, suggesting that prices were driven more by allocation policy and expectations than by realised emission scarcity. The findings imply that carbon-market design should not pursue an unattainable optimum, but should manage the trade-off among stability, liquidity and abatement rigidity according to policy priorities.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136814first seen 2026-07-08 05:07:46
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