Evaluating Embodied Carbon in Future Housing: The Role of Household Size and Building Type
将来の住宅における体化炭素の評価：世帯規模と建物タイプの役割 (AI 翻訳)
K. Kyaw, Franziska Häuptle
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ノルウェー・トロンハイムを対象に、将来の住宅開発における体化炭素排出量（ECE）を世帯規模と建物タイプの観点から評価した。人口増加を2030年と2050年に想定し、3つの世帯密度シナリオ（BAU、CON、DEN）と3つの建物ミックス（コンクリート、CLT、従来型木材）を比較。木材ベースのミックスはコンクリートより大幅に低い純排出量を示し、最大160万トンCO2eの削減可能。また、密集化により47%の削減効果。ただし、世帯規模あたりの排出傾向は見られなかった。
English
This study evaluates embodied carbon emissions (ECE) in future housing in Trondheim, Norway, considering household size and building type. Using cradle-to-site LCA, it models population growth for 2030 and 2050 under two national scenarios combined with three household density scenarios (BAU, CON, DEN) and three building mixes (concrete, CLT, conventional timber). Timber-based mixes show much lower or negative net emissions, saving up to 1.6 million tonnes CO2e. Densification reduces emissions by up to 47% compared to continued decline. Per capita emissions are lowest in timber scenarios, but no clear trend by household size.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも木造建築（CLTなど）への関心が高いが、本論文はノルウェーの事例ではあるものの、世帯規模シナリオと建材選択の組み合わせが体化炭素に与える影響を定量的に示しており、日本の住宅政策や建築基準法（省エネ基準等）への示唆を与える。特に、密集度の向上と木材利用の相乗効果が重要。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the growing body of literature on embodied carbon in buildings, a key area for global climate targets. By comparing concrete and timber building mixes under different household density scenarios, it provides quantitative evidence for policy makers and urban planners. The findings are relevant for the development of low-carbon building regulations (e.g., building codes, LCA requirements) and for achieving net-zero emissions in the construction sector. The study also highlights the need for integrated strategies combining material choice and urban form.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The methodology combining demographic scenario modeling with building material LCA provides a framework for similar studies in other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Construction firms and urban planners can use the quantitative outcomes to support material selection and density strategies for reducing embodied carbon in new housing developments.
📄 Abstract（原文）
As the construction sector aims to reduce emissions, this study examines how household size and building typology influence embodied carbon emissions (ECE) in future housing. A case study of Trondheim, Norway, models population growth for 2030 and 2050 under two national scenarios, combined with three household density scenarios: baseline (BAU), continued decline (CON) and densification (DEN). ECE is assessed using cradle-to-site life cycle assessment in accordance with TEK17 standards. Building mixes vary by apartment structure: BM1 uses concrete, BM2 uses cross-laminated timber, and BM3 uses conventional timber. Timber-based mixes result in substantially lower or even negative net emissions compared to concrete-based mixes. Switching from concrete to wood can result in up to 1.6 million tons of CO2e in net emissions savings, while densification can produce a reduction of up to 47% compared to a continued decline in house size. Per capita emissions are also lowest in timber-based scenarios, while there is no discernible trend in household sizes. These findings highlight the importance of aligning low-carbon building materials with occupancy strategies to minimize emissions from future residential development. Future research should address renovation, demolition, operational emissions and the role of vacant dwellings and infrastructure in shaping total carbon outcomes.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1615/1/012061first seen 2026-06-29 06:35:50
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