Mangrove Loss and Growing Coastal Flood Exposure in East Malaysia: A Multi-Decadal Analysis with Sea Level Rise Projections
東マレーシアにおけるマングローブの喪失と海岸洪水リスクの増大：海面上昇予測を用いた複数十年の分析 (AI 翻訳)
Tai, Lik Ren
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は東マレーシア（サバ・サラワク）における1996～2020年のマングローブ減少を定量化し、2050年までの洪水曝露を予測。マングローブ管理の軌道が排出シナリオより洪水曝露に強く影響することを示し、歴史的喪失で約43～52 km²の海岸線が浸水リスクにさらされ、約1万人が影響を受けた。自然ベースの適応策としてマングローブ保全の重要性を強調。
English
This study quantifies mangrove loss in East Malaysia from 1996-2020 and projects flood exposure to 2050. It finds that mangrove management trajectory has a larger impact on future flood exposure than emissions scenario choice. Historical loss exposed an additional 43-52 km² of coastline, affecting ~12,000 people. Mangrove conservation is a valuable near-term adaptation measure.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではマングローブ面積は限定的だが、海岸防災における自然ベースの解決策（NbS）の有効性を示す点で参考になる。特に、気候変動適応計画での生態系活用を検討する際のエビデンスとして価値がある。
In the global GX context
Fits global GX context by providing empirical evidence on nature-based solutions for coastal climate adaptation. Underscores that local land-use decisions (mangrove loss) can dominate over global emissions pathways in determining flood risk, relevant for ISSB and TCFD's focus on physical risk management.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Quantifies the relative importance of mangrove management vs. emission scenarios for coastal flood exposure, informing adaptation planning models.
🏢実務担当者:Can use findings to prioritize mangrove conservation for coastal flood risk reduction in corporate or municipal adaptation strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that local mangrove management decisions significantly affect future flood exposure, supporting investments in nature-based adaptation.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Mangrove forests provide critical coastal flood protection, yet their ongoing loss in combination with sea level rise creates a compounding exposure dynamic that remains poorly quantified at sub-national scale across Southeast Asia. This study presents the first systematic, multi-decadal analysis of mangrove loss and coastal flood exposure change for the 10 km coastal buffer of East Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak), covering 1996 to 2020 and projecting forward to 2050 under a structured scenario matrix. Drawing on five openly available global datasets — the Global Mangrove Watch v3.0, Copernicus GLO-30 digital elevation model, WorldPop 2020 population grid, GADM v4.1 administrative boundaries, and IPCC AR6 sea level projections — and a reproducible Python-based workflow, the study quantifies mangrove extent change, hydrologically-connected inundation zones at five elevation thresholds, flood exposure attributable to historical loss, and population exposure under six combined mangrove loss and sea level rise scenarios. Net mangrove loss of 46.34 km² (−1.14%) was recorded over the study period, masking a gross loss of 114.06 km². Four spatial hotspots were identified: the Rajang Delta, SW Sarawak coast, Menumbok Forest Reserve and Kinabatangan coast. Historical mangrove loss exposed an additional 43.79 to 52.14 km² of coastline to inundation, affecting approximately 10,200 to 12,730 people. Scenario projections to 2050 demonstrate that mangrove management trajectory exerts a substantially greater influence on future flood exposure than the choice of emissions scenario, with the spread across mangrove loss scenarios (~29 km², ~12,400 people) exceeding the SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5 spread by more than an order of magnitude. These findings underscore the value of mangrove conservation as a near-term, nature-based coastal adaptation measure in the Indo-Pacific region.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- EarthArXiv https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/13448/download/23679/first seen 2026-06-17 04:19:58 · last seen 2026-06-24 04:17:13
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