Economic impacts of industrial energy transition: an evaluation of Austrian climate neutrality pathways

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🔬研究者:Methodology for extreme scenario modeling and economic impact assessment of industrial energy transitions.

🏢実務担当者:Insights into investment needs and energy demand trajectories for manufacturing firms planning decarbonization.

🏛政策担当者:No-regret options and policy implications for achieving climate neutrality while maintaining industrial competitiveness.

In the effort to limit global warming to below 2 °C and implement EU climate targets, Austria has set itself the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2040. The Austrian manufacturing industry is a major contributor, currently emitting 23 Mt of CO₂-eq emissions per year (34% of the total). Its transition to climate neutrality can be achieved in various ways, all of which are associated with specific costs and macroeconomic impacts. Rather than modeling the most likely scenarios, we worked with four extreme scenarios, spanning a range of possible pathways. These four scenarios are: ‘Renewable Gases’, in which the transition is enabled by greening the upstream energy supply sector; ‘Circular Economy’, in which we project the effects of maximal recycling and material efficiencies; ‘Innovation’, in which electrification of manufacturing industries is in focus; and ‘Sector Coupling’, in which synergies between companies are used. From these extreme scenarios, we derived the most likely pathways, while emphasizing economic no-regret options and macroeconomic advantages. We present technology-centric pathways for all industry sectors and derive their respective energy demands. These are given as trajectories in terms of the energy carrier mix, total energy, and import demands. We elaborate on the investment and running costs of each scenario. In 2040, electric demand will almost double to 35–47 TWh, the use of (renewable) gases will increase to 45–73 TWh, and biomass and industrial heat recovery will remain at 10–20 and 5–21 TWh, respectively. The total capital expenditure of companies is 17–24 billion EUR, of which one-third is accounted for by actual production facilities/equipment and two-thirds by construction costs. All scenarios positively affect the gross domestic product, whereas impact is maximized by effectively employing domestic energy resources and reducing primary energy demand via electrification, waste-heat utilization, and secondary production. Similar to the present, future resource demand will not be met domestically. Today’s fossil fuel imports will shift to expensive hydrogen and renewable hydrocarbon imports. As the imported inputs will have higher value (having the same energy content but being renewable) and therefore higher prices, maximizing domestic resource efficiency is an important factor for maintaining competitiveness.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-026-00578-8first seen 2026-07-06 05:18:27