Natural Disasters and Development Thresholds: Infrastructure, Nonlinearity, and Economic Resilience
自然災害と発展の閾値：インフラ、非線形性、経済的レジリエンス (AI 翻訳)
Keisuke Kokubun
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、108カ国のデータを用いて、自然災害の経済成長への影響が電力アクセスなどのインフラ整備状況に依存することを示す。パネル閾値回帰により、低インフラ国では災害後に復興需要による一時的な成長が見られるが、インフラが整うと影響は消失する。災害影響は発展段階に応じて非線形に変化し、電力アクセスが経済的レジリエンスの鍵であることを明らかにした。
English
Using a panel of 108 countries, this study finds that natural disaster impacts on economic growth depend on infrastructure development measured by electricity access. In low-infrastructure regimes, disaster intensity shows short-run growth responses consistent with reconstruction, but this association disappears once basic access is achieved. The results reconcile mixed evidence by showing nonlinear disaster-growth relationships and highlight electricity access as a key determinant of economic resilience.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は地震や台風など自然災害が多く、インフラが高度に発達している。本論文は、インフラ整備が災害の経済影響を緩和することを示唆し、日本の防災投資の有効性を裏付ける。また、電力アクセスの重要性は、発展途上国への支援政策にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study contributes to the global disaster-growth literature by demonstrating that infrastructure (electricity access) conditions the economic impact of natural disasters. It supports the view that resilient infrastructure is critical for climate adaptation, aligning with TCFD and frameworks that emphasize physical risk management. The findings also inform infrastructure investment priorities in disaster-prone developing countries.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Demonstrates nonlinear threshold effects in disaster-growth relationship using electricity access, offering a methodological approach for resilience studies.
🏢実務担当者:Reinforces the business case for investing in resilient infrastructure to reduce economic disruption from disasters.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights that electricity access is a key enabler of economic resilience, justifying policy focus on infrastructure development in disaster-prone regions.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Natural disasters pose major challenges to economic development, yet empirical evidence on their growth effects remains mixed. This study examines whether the macroeconomic impact of disasters depends on infrastructure development, using electricity access as a conditioning variable. Employing a balanced panel of 108 countries from 1996 to 2022, we estimate a panel threshold regression to capture nonlinear disaster–growth relationships. The results indicate that disaster impacts vary systematically across infrastructure regimes. In very low electricity-access contexts, disaster intensity is associated with short-run growth responses consistent with reconstruction-driven dynamics in a very limited subset of observations. Once basic electricity access is achieved, this association weakens and becomes statistically indistinguishable from zero. Beyond this lower regime, the analysis also reveals a broader structural transition in which disaster impacts gradually decouple from economic growth as infrastructure coverage expands. These findings suggest that disaster effects are nonlinear and contingent on development stage. By distinguishing between statistical thresholds and economically meaningful transition zones, the study reconciles mixed evidence in the disaster–growth literature and highlights electricity access as a key determinant of economic resilience.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14030243first seen 2026-06-29 07:51:37
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